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Kim Hollis: Black Nativity, a movie version of an Off-Broadway show written by Langston Hughes that debuted way back in the early 1960s, earned $3.7 million over three days and $4.8 million since debuting on Wednesday. What do you think of this result?

Edwin Davies: I think it suffered somewhat from opening in the wake of The Best Man Holiday, which is geared towards a similar audience and touches upon similar themes, but also didn't seem to have any great push behind it. I can only speak for myself, but I saw no ads for the film in the run up to its release, and only knew that it had been released once the grosses started coming in. Maybe awareness was higher than that and I was just unaware of it, but I do get the feeling that there was no effort to get the word out about the film.

Kim Hollis: I didn't see any ads for it at all, and barely remembered it was even hitting theaters on Friday. I absolutely believe that this movie's target demographic is one that enthusiastically supports good or even mediocre looking product, but if you don't do a great job of letting them know it's available, I don't know how you expect a better result than what this got.

Max Braden: That's a stark difference to The Best Man Holiday, and I think the marketing efforts matched the box office results. That's a little too easy a comparison, though. Black Nativity is a musical, which is already a box office obstacle compared to a comedy like Best Man Holiday. And the tone of Black Nativity is far more family-oriented than date-oriented, which might have meant it would have been more sensible as a movie of the week or mini-series on TV. That opening is going to need a miracle to come up with the money to match the movie's budget.

David Mumpower: I don't think we should rush to compare it to The Best Man Holiday. The more direct comparison is The Nativity Story, the 2006 release starring Keisha Castle-Hughes of Whale Rider fame. That film debuted to a modest $8.8 million, which is still double what this one managed. The Nativity Story wound up grossing $37.6 million domestically. My expectation is that Black Nativity falls well short of that level. What it will do is become a holiday staple in coming years as niche programming becomes the industry standard. The ardent religious tone that made the play an annual tradition should prove to be a consistent draw to a respectable home video audience. Sidenote: if you are new to BOP and don't know what Whale Rider is, watch it tomorrow then thank me on Friday.

Kim Hollis: Philomena, another Oscar bait film, this time featuring Judi Dench, expanded to 835 locations and landed in the top 10, earning $3.7 million from Friday-to-Sunday and $4.7 million over five days. What do you think about this result?

Brett Ballard-Beach: The Weinsteins' battle to get this rated PG-13 by the MPAA (so dame Judi could keep her two "fucks") got this some free publicity and the Oscar bait-y nature of her role is keeping it on people's tongues. This isn't a stellar beginning but this could be a long-runner through the holidays for when people are in the mood for a tear-jerker leavened with some of Steve Coogan's patented acerbic wit. The trailer made my wife and me laugh and cry (it is about a mother searching for the son she never knew) and I am of the opinion that word-of-mouth will help this out as December progresses.

Edwin Davies: This is a good start which will probably form the basis for a solid run, followed by at least one nomination for the film for Judi Dench's performance, which is great. I saw the film yesterday and she's by far the best thing about it, but it's a very charming film that manages to be wrenching and funny without being unfocused, and I think it will play very well over the weeks ahead.

Max Braden: That would be an okay start if the movie really had some Oscar heat to it, but I just get the feeling that as we get into Top Ten list weeks and nomination lists, that the movie itself will fall off of the public consciousness before it can really get planted.

Kim Hollis: While I don't think it's going to land on many top 10 lists, I do think that interest in the film will increase as Judi Dench gets more attention for her performance. It's one of those movies that will do small but decent business. I think it's kind of a smart move to push a film with a true female lead, primarily because those roles are so few and far between.

David Mumpower: I agree with Kim that the intent here is a longer term strategy. The movie was not expected to be a strong box office performer. If Dench is nominated, however, it becomes a much more valuable asset at the start of 2014 as well as during its existence on home video. The Netflix/Amazon Prime monies have fundamentally changed the strategies of some releases.

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