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Kim Hollis: What do you think is the long-term outlook for The Desolation of Smaug and the final film in the Hobbit series, There and Back Again?

Edwin Davies: If Desolation of Smaug follows the same pattern that An Unexpected Journey did, with a multiplier of roughly 3.6, then I'd expect to see it finish with a final total of about $260 million, which is a sizable fall from An Unexpected Journey's $300 million. Since things rarely work out that perfectly, and since the more positive reviews might help the Desolation of Smaug hold a little better, I'd expect it to split the difference and end up somewhere in the $270-280 range. It's already performing better than An Unexpected Journey overseas, so it'll probably make a billion dollars worldwide when all is said and done, so any decline in the U.S. will be offset pretty handily.

As for There and Back Again, I'd expect to see a slight uptick on account of the finale factor - or, more cynically, because it'll be the film in the trilogy where something finally happens - but I get the feeling that the damage has already been done with An Unexpected Journey. Die-hard Tolkien fans will defend splitting a very thin book into three long ass movies, but I think most people see it as naked greed that's producing sub-standard movies, so probably would take a pass on the last installment. I'd expect it to finish in the $290-300 million range domestically, and add another billion dollars worldwide again. Since the trilogy will have cost somewhere north of $600 million to produce by the time all is said and done, it'll have turned into a pretty profitable enterprise.

Felix Quinonez: I agree that the damage has already been done. I think this one will do in the $250-$275 million range domestically and get close to a billion worldwide. As far as the third installment, I believe that being the final chapter will raise interest a bit and it might do a bit better than the second chapter. But when all is said and done I believe that only the first film will have made over $300 million domestically.

Of course no one should feel sorry for Peter Jackson and company because these movies are making boatloads of money but I really do think that the drop in quality from LOTR has kept The Hobbit from having the same crossover appeal. Unlike LOTR, I think The Hobbit reached its commercial peak with the first chapter.

Bruce Hall: I'm reluctant to try and take a 13% drop in opening weekend revenue and project final numbers, because a lot can happen between now and then. But I feel comfortable guessing that Smaug will fail to break $300 million domestically. I would expect to see a typical second frame drop in the 50+ percent range (perhaps I'm being generous, we'll see), so it's going to be all downhill from here. International numbers are slightly more promising, with An Unexpected Journey opening internationally at $138 million and Smaug falling just short of that at $131 million. It's too early to be sure, but I think the sequel's chances of at least sniffing a billion worldwide are quite good.

As for the third installment, I don't see why it can't be similarly successful. While the drop off in performance between Parts 1 and 2 is not insignificant, it's also not exactly cause for alarm. We're talking about enormous sums of money. These are all going to be hugely profitable films. And creatively, if Part 3 can end on a high note, it's not impossible for it to make up some ground both financially and critically. That's not to say I'm hopeful for it, but remember that Peter Jackson has done us proud before. Perhaps he still will again.

Kim Hollis: Desolation of Smaug will almost certainly trend down from the performance of the first Hobbit film. Both had the advantage of opening around the same time of year, but calendar configuration might be able to make a difference for Smaug. The final film should see a small uptick in theory, but I'm actually mildly concerned about it right now. Even though critical reviews for Smaug are better than the first film, the word-of-mouth I'm hearing is not particularly kind to the second movie in the series. I'm hearing a lot of people say they were bored (and I was too, for what it's worth), and there could be some real residual negative impact moving forward as a result.

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