Weekend Forecast for January 3-5, 2014
By Reagen Sulewski
January 3, 2014
The Hobbit 2 faced down potential disaster, or at least just brand attrition, and survived to tell the tale, earning nearly $30 million over the Christmas weekend. It fell behind Frozen on New Year's Day, but longer films can definitely suffer on weekdays more than others. The Lord of the Rings films have all hit hard roads after the holidays, although there's a huge chunk of change in its coffers. I'd look for around $15 million this weekend.
Fourth place is where we might see the first of our Christmas Day openers, with The Wolf of Wall Street. The Scorsese-DiCaprio collaboration fizzled a little, opening to just $18 million, but may find an audience in the post-holiday period. I'd give it about $12 million this weekend. A similar figure should be in store for American Hustle, which is also not burning up the charts, but at least had the virtue of two “opening weekends” in effect. Look for a lot more films to bypass the Christmas Day release in the future.
Anchorman 2 was one of the few films to have a significant drop the week of Christmas, though with nearly $100 million in the bank, no one should really be complaining. This is ultimately a very strange and off-putting comedy, and that it's gotten as much as it has is a testament to how far its audience is willing to go. Give it $11 million for its third weekend.
Saving Mr. Banks was another Christmas success story, and probably the best candidate to keep its run going post-Holiday. Now sitting close to $50 million after a $9 million opening weekend, this might have one of the best old-school multipliers in ages. All hail the calendar! $9 million seems like a good take for it this weekend.
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty is the biggest “meh” of the Christmas season, managing just $12 million in its opening weekend and sits at around $35 million to date. Ben Stiller's attempt at heart-warming did not work at all, and even on its $90 million budget it's going to struggle not to be a bomb. I'd look for around $7 million this frame.
After a bit of wobbliness after its opening weekend, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire now looks assured to be the #1 earning film of 2013, getting set to pass the $406 million of Iron Man 3, if not this weekend, sometime during the following week. With a $158 million opening weekend, this is hardly an upset, but also points to the high stakes of these franchise films. Give it about $6 million this weekend.
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Forecast: Weekend of January 3-5, 2014
|
Rank |
Film |
Number of
Sites |
Changes in Sites
from Last |
Estimated
Gross ($) |
|
1
|
Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones
|
2,500
|
New
|
24.2
|
|
2
|
Frozen
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
17.5
|
|
3
|
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
15.3
|
|
4
|
The Wolf of Wall Street
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
12.4
|
|
5
|
American Hustle
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
12.0
|
|
6
|
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
11.3
|
|
7
|
Saving Mr. Banks
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
9.4
|
|
8
|
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
7.5
|
|
9
|
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
6.5
|
|
10
|
47 Ronin
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
4.2
|
Continued:
1
2
|
|
|
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