New at BOP: Review: Matrix Resurrections Movie Review: Moonfall Movie Reviews: Scream The #1 Movie in America November Forecast The Many Saints of Newark October Forecast New Trivia Question All site updates Share & Save   Tweet Print this column

So, perhaps partly out of stubbornness, I still think 12 Years a Slave is going to win. Despite the fact that Gravity is a strong Best Picture contender, I still do not see it happening for that movie and am not ready to switch my prediction. And there are still a few minor awards to be given out. I hate to label the Writers’ Guild a “minor” award, but their wonky eligibility rules disqualify leading Best Picture contenders year in and year out (this year, notably, 12 Years a Slave) so their predictive value is limited, at best. And of course the Brits have to speak at the BAFTA awards as well. There is still some time for momentum to shift, or for the conversation and/or campaigns to push one contender ahead of another.

After all this, however, I would be remiss if I did not leave you with a word to the wise, caveat emptor if you will - if you want to win your ballot on Oscar night, you’re probably better off not predicting a Best Director/Best Picture split. The stats, ironically enough, don’t lie.

How Many Oscars will American Hustle Win?

So in the “will there be a split” debate, most of us assume that if there is, 12 Years a Slave will nab Best Picture. What, then, of American Hustle? In my last column, I had it winning one single, lowly Oscar, for Costumes. As the race stands now, this scenario is unlikely to play out at the Oscars. Despite losses at DGA and PGA, the SAG win and its nominations tally shows that the movie is liked. And the campaign for that movie is strong. So, at the very least, another win might come for Hustle in the Best Original Screenplay category, at the expense of the much wittier Her.

And, once more, do not discount the strength of this movie with the actors. There is still room for Jennifer Lawrence and even (gasp) Amy Adams to surprise us. Hustle is thus playing multiple roles in this race - wild card, dark horse, spoiler, and even frontrunner. It is hard to fathom that the movie that was the frontrunner just a few days ago will get completely ignored. Indeed, if one is looking at years like when Shakespeare defeated Private Ryan or Crash defeated Brokeback, then the “fluffier” movie, in this year American Hustle, stands to benefit. Indeed, the value of 1972 is limited in that sense - then, the movies were darker. Recently, as we know, more facile pictures (The Artist, Argo, A Beautiful Mind, The King’s Speech) tend to win. So do not forget Hustle yet.

In my next columns I will turn to the technical races and the shorts and foreign language films. Those can kill your ballot on Oscar night.

Continued:       1       2       3