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This brings it down to Roger Deakins’ nominated lightning and camera work in the thriller Prisoners, and the presumptive front-runner, Emmanuel Lubezki’s work on Gravity. Deakins is best known for his frequent collaborations with the Coen brothers and for being the loser-est member of the branch: this is his 11th nomination in this category, and he will likely walk away a runner-up for the 11th time. It is a shame, too, because the mostly drab and mood-setting lightning of Prisoners is a key element to obtaining the right tone for the movie. Deakins’ work is one of a kind.

But I sincerely doubt that the Academy will pass over Lubezki (who has had his own mini-rash of Oscar misfortune) for his highly advanced lightning of different phases of the Earth’s day in Gravity. Lubezki is, in fact, no stranger to surprise victors here. He was widely expected to win for what is now considered one of the most well-lit movies of all time, Children of Men (Lubezki’s last collaboration with Cuaron), but was passed over as a large groundswell of support for the deeply beloved Pan’s Labyrinth overtook him to the benefit of his Mexican compatriot, Guillermo Navarro. But don’t expect history to repeat itself this time around. When the envelope for Best Cinematography is opened and Lubezki’s name is called, it may signal the start of a very good night for Mexicans at the Oscars.

Best Original Song.

Another category that has been in the news of late is Best Original Song. The nominees here this year are “Let It Go,” from Frozen, “Happy,” from Despicable Me 2, “The Moon Song,” from Her, “Ordinary Love,” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, and “Alone Yet Not Alone” from Alone Yet Not Alone.

By now you have probably heard of the mini-scandal of sorts that erupted on nominations morning when a song from an unknown, barely screened movie about a Christian family kidnapped by Native Americans was nominated. Eyebrows were raised given that it was composed by a former director of the song branch of the Academy. Two weeks later, the Academy announced that it was rescinding the nomination because the songwriters had directly e-mailed voters to ask them to watch the movie, in violation of Academy rules. One wonders whether such a drastic move was really necessary given that the song has no chance of winning and that the other four, with juggernaut studios campaigning for them, have likely committed a rules-breaking peccadillo here to there. But one fewer nominee at least increases a prognosticator’s chances of getting it right, so…

In any event, what should be one of the easiest calls of the night comes in this category - a category almost defunct as of three years ago when the branch determined songs made originally for motion pictures were so scarce and lacking in quality that it nominated only two. The category has since recovered from its near death experience and yielded a strong showing of original and memorable content by respected artists. Although “Ordinary Love” and “Happy” benefit from the star power of their composers, U2 and Pharrell Williams respectfully, the movies are not sufficiently high-profile to make a difference here. Nor would I put much stock in U2’s victory at the Golden Globes for their Mandela song: we know the Hollywood Foreign Press likes to generate star-wattage for their show.

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