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2. “It did not win the PGA, DGA, or BAFTA awards.” This theory has some superficial appeal. It is true that American Hustle won the New York Film Critics Circle award and SAG and then essentially faded from contention. And it is also true that it has been since Crash that a movie wins Best Picture without at least one of the PGA/DGA. On the other hand, it did win SAG, and maybe we are due for another winner that did not resonate with PGA/DGA.

3. “Because, quite simply, it is not as good as Gravity or 12 Years a Slave.” To be fair, I cannot find many statistical or obvious reasons why American Hustle can’t win other than “it doesn’t deserve to.” This is a somewhat scary result of this exercise.

Gravity

Why it will win

1. “Of the nominees, it leads the box office, and indeed, is a blockbuster.” You can throw this theory out into outer space immediately. It has been since 2006 that the nominee going into the Oscars winning the box office took Best Picture, and it is clear that the Academy long ago stopped selecting Best Picture based on box office.

2. “Because it is strong in the technical races.” Like the “the actors like it” theory for American Hustle, this theory has some superficial appeal, but again does not mean much to me. Many movies like Lincoln, Hugo and Life of Pi had a staggering number of technical nominations and that was ultimately their fate, technical Oscars while something else took Best Picture.

3. “Because it is, in a sense, the most crowd-pleasing of the bunch, while having a sufficient aura of ‘stylish story’ to be palatable to the more serious-minded voters.” Like American Hustle, Gravity is undoubtedly a crowd-pleaser. To be sure, it challenges the viewer to make sense of many allegories and symbolisms beautifully landscaping the movie. But it does not make you watch harrowing scenes like 12 Years a Slave or ask you to make sense of complex characters like Wolf of Wall Street. Indeed, Gravity can be enjoyed as simple popcorn thriller sci-fi without any meaning whatsoever, and that crowd-pleasing aspect will undoubtedly score it a lot of second and third place votes. The theory makes some sense, but I would argue that this popcorn-movie aspect of Gravity hurts it with more high-browed voters, enough to counteract any benefit it may derive from its ability to be both a simple and a complex movie at the same time.

4. “Because the Academy is ready to embrace the future of movies.” I will believe it when I see it, but a win for Gravity would mean that the Academy has finally come to grips with the fact that audiences enjoy effects-driven movies. I would not bet on it.

5. “It won the PGA and the DGA, what more do you want?” At least statistically, this is probably Gravity’s best argument. Indeed, while 12 Years a Slave has dominated the critical circle, so did The Social Network. That year shows that critics matter less and less and that guilds matter more. When The King’s Speech dominated that circuit, it was clear who would emerge the winner. Thus, Gravity’s domination of the guild awards, despite losing most critics’ awards to Slave, is a strong reason to bet on its victory on Oscar Sunday.

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