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Why it can’t win

1. “Because the Academy is not ready to embrace the future of movies and does not like sci-fi crowd pleasers.” This argument is almost impossible to escape. Sci-fi movies have never won. Period. They have rarely even been nominated, with the most glaring exception being 2001: A Space Odyssey. The Academy simply does not take science fiction movies seriously. For many voters, Gravity is just a popcorn, effects-driven movie. Actors, in particular, are said to resist this type of production. I guess we will find out if this theory still holds any weight today.

2. “The lack of a screenplay nomination." Statistically, this is a good reason why Gravity may not win. That said, there is precedent for a huge effects driven blockbuster to win without a screenplay nomination--Titanic. Of course the problem for Gravity is that it didn't make a billion bucks yet, and that unlike Titanic is up against a historically "important" film."

12 Years a Slave

Why it will win

1. “Because it is the most critically-acclaimed of the bunch.” As should be clear from the above, I do not buy this one. Critical consensus did not help The Social Network.

2. “Because it is the most ‘Oscar movie’ of the bunch.” This is the main reason I still believe this movie will win on Oscar night. It has the most important feeling of the bunch, the most serious character. On the other hand, there are undoubtedly some people who resist (rightly or wrongly) the notion that any given movie “has” to win, that it “should” win because it is important. The question is this: Is the number of people who care about the Academy looking smart and serious, larger than the number of people who do not care about that and do not want to be told what to vote for? I think the answer is “yes,” and that is why I think Slave will win.

3. “Because it is made by a black director, and Hollywood thinks it is time to finally reward a movie made by a black artist.” It is possible that this theory carries some weight. To be sure, it helped Kathryn Bigelow to have the “first woman” narrative. In a sense, it is too bad that these narratives take hold, because it can later be used by some to impinge the quality of the work or the deservedness of the win. “Oh, she only won because she was a woman, right?” On the other hand, it is good that these narratives take hold, because, arguably, a little more diversity is needed when it comes to recognizing achievement in film. So, it is entirely possible that some voters will think that, in the words of the Oscar ads that the movie itself is using, “it is time” for a movie directed by a black person to win Best Picture.

Why it can’t win

1. “Because it is made by a black director, and Hollywood is not ready to reward a movie made by a black artist.” Of course, one can easily flip the previous argument and say that 86 years of white directors winning Best Picture shows that there is some deep-seated segregation or division or even racism in the Academy. I, personally, doubt any appreciable portion of Academy members is racist, but it must be said that 86 years do show that there is a tendency for Hollywood to reward white artists. In the end, it will be impossible to know what voters were thinking in the privacy of their voting booth, so to speak. Undoubtedly, the racism accusation (rightly or wrongly) will be thrown around if Slave loses.

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