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2. “Because it does not have the box office draw - having grossed only around $50M.” Again, I do not think box office drives Best Picture anymore. The old box office adage died when The Hurt Locker, a movie that made $17 million in the summer, won Best Picture over Jim Cameron’s multi-billion dollar Avatar juggernaut.

3. “Because people resist seeing it, and it is not a crowd-pleaser.” You cannot imagine how many people I have heard tell me they do not want to see a movie about slavery, because they know what kind of grueling scenes to expect. This, to me, is the single strongest reason to argue against a win by this movie. The strongest reason American Hustle may win - it is enjoyable and facile - is the main reason Slave may lose.

So what to make all of this? It is hard to say. For one, many arguments and statistics can be used both for and against a movie winning. So be wary of those. It is so simple and yet so difficult to figure out: they vote for what they like.

Here is some consolation to the fans of the movies that do not emerge victorious. For better or for worse, consider that winning a Best Picture Oscar can seriously damage a movie’s reputation in years to come, depending on several parameters. Many times people go from respecting a movie to being skeptical about it when they hear that it won eight or nine Oscars. I love Slumdog Millionaire, but did it really deserve eight Oscars, as many as Schindler’s List? Or did a Beautiful Mind, an otherwise unobjectionable movie, really deserve Best Picture over The Fellowship of the Ring or Gosford Park or Moulin Rouge!? Winning the Oscar can be good for a movie’s filmmakers and for its immediate reputation, but over time perception can be (unfairly) tainted against it if it is seen as unseating a more deserving or better-aging winner. Thus, perhaps the best a Gravity fan can hope for on Oscar night is that the movie they love receives a good number of golden statuettes, but does not have to walk the plank of history’s judgment by being anointed as “their” best of the year. Food for thought.

Final predictions are next.

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