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Oh, here is one more thing I resort to when I am hopelessly confused: I ask my parents. Seriously. They are the quintessential Academy demographic - older, mostly male (or male centric), who think of themselves as cool liberals. Spoilers: this year they are gaga over American Hustle, Jennifer Lawrence, and all that jazz. So rest assured that I will be trembling all night that the Best Picture envelope does not yield American Hustle.

One last thing before we get started. Here are three key questions particular to this year’s race that you should answer before you begin filling out your ballot.

1. Will American Hustle really go home empty-handed and can it still win the top prize?
2. Will the Weinstein-backed movie in the race really go home empty-handed for the first time in decades or will the beloved Philomena sneak through somewhere?
3. What category of the technical races will have an out-of-left-field winner?

So here we go, from easiest to hardest to predict, divided into two groups. In iffier races I will list my own pick first, and a potential spoiler second.

The “Lower 16” Categories

Best Visual Effects – Gravity. Easy, move on.

Best Original Make-up – Dallas Buyers Club. Sorry, Grandpa.

Best Animated Feature – Frozen. Just let it go.

Best Cinematography – Gravity. I want to not jinx the overdue Emmanuel Lubezki, but there is no real competitor.

Best Sound Effects (Sound Editing) – Gravity. Gravity is clearly strong in the technical categories and I expect the “sounds of silence” gimmick will carry it to a sweep of the two sound categories.

Best Sound Mixing – Gravity. Inside Llewyn Davis is the potential spoiler but I would not count on it.

Best Original Score – Gravity. This one really puzzles me for some reason as we get into iffier races. I have a nagging feeling that Philomena will win its consolation Oscar here, but the pundits are virtually unanimous that it will be Gravity’s somewhat muted score.

Best Production Design – The Great Gatsby. Watch for a Gravity sweep of technical prizes if it steals this award from the more deserving Gatsby. Indeed, Gatsby faces four Best Picture nominees in this race, so it is honestly due for an upset.

Best Animated Short Film – Get a Horse! The Disney entry seems to be popular and plays ahead of Frozen, but a win by Mr. Hublot is more in line with past victors here.

Best Documentary Short – The Lady in Number 6. Karama Has No Walls is your potential spoiler.

Best Live Action Short Film – That Wasn’t Me. Most pundits, however, are betting on The Voorman Problem, which admittedly is more in line with past winners in this category, so take that into account. Me, I’m sticking with the Spanish entry.

Best Original Song – Let It Go. This looked a lot safer a few days ago, but many think the older-skewing Academy could go for U2’s Ordinary Love or even the hipper Happy by Pharrell Williams. It’s going to be close, but I think Let It Go still has it.

Best Costume Design – American Hustle. We are quickly getting into very murky territory. Because I refuse to believe that (a) American Hustle will win Best Picture and (b) that it will go home empty-handed, I am predicting it to win here. But this is perhaps my least confident prediction of the night—most pundits are expecting the Great Gatsby. I think 12 Years a Slave is also a possibility. Trust your gut on this one.

Best Foreign Language Film – The Great Beauty. That is the safe bet. The more interesting pick that I would love to see is Broken Circle Breakdown. But I doubt it.

Best Documentary Feature – 20 Feet From Stardom. But the Act of Killing has been the critical darling and the pundit pick throughout the year, this one is also a close race.

Best Film Editing – Captain Phillips. Caveat emptor: This will likely go to Gravity if they just click it off in every technical race. But the most deserving is, in my mind, Phillips. I doubt anything else has a chance but if 12 Years a Slave pulls of this win then you know it has won Best Picture.

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