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Phase Two: The Big Boys

Best Supporting Actor – Jared Leto. Signed, sealed, and delivered.

Best Actress – Cate Blanchett. Weeks ago, this would have been the easiest call. But Oscar smear campaigns are a yearly tradition now (Zero Dark Thirty anyone?) and this time the target was the best-reviewed performance of the year. If it worked, Amy Adams stands to benefit. But you would have to be very…brave…to predict Amy to win.

Best Adapted Screenplay – 12 Years a Slave. With or without a Best Picture win, nothing else can beat it here. It’s either a consolation prize or a reaffirmation prize. Admittedly, it is another category where they may see fit to give a consolation prize to Philomena or even Wolf of Wall Street, but a win for Slave here is like a reaffirmation for Solomon Northrup’s life story itself. I can’t see anything else winning.

Best Director – Alfonso Cuarón. Cuarón has won every single precursor, even in awards where the ultimate big prize has gone on to McQueen’s film. If Cuaron does not win, not only is Gravity not winning Best Picture, the Academy has lost its mind. If McQueen manages to pull off a win, then of course we know 12 Years won Best Picture.

Best Original Screenplay – Her. This is a tough one because the Academy really loves American Hustle, but Her is also very liked and respected. This could go as another consolation prize to Hustle, but Her is the type of movie that tends to win here. Still, this it’s a very close race, one you ought to think of carefully before making a selection.

Best Actor – Matthew McConaughey. Matthew has everything going for him. Incredible year of work, transformative performance, charming and important speeches, plays a real life hero, etc. DiCaprio plays a despised character, which rarely yields a Best Actor win. McConaughey, of course, could be the target of resentment from the older members who prefer to reward more seasoned talents than a once romantic comedy boy toy. If the race between the two is tight enough, then I suppose Chiwetel Ejiofor or even Bruce Dern can slip in. I’m sticking to the safe pick, but this category is ripe for an upset.

Best Supporting Actress – Lupita Nyong’o. Here is a telling stat: in this century, how many women have won the Golden Globe and then BAFTA but failed to win the Oscar? Answer: Zero. So what I am predicting in picking Nyong’o is that Jennifer Lawrence will become the first to win the Globe and BAFTA but lose at Oscar. Typing it up makes the prediction seem even more insane, and it is undoubtedly my most queasy of the entire ballot and I may still change my mind before marking off my ballot at my own Oscar contest on Sunday. But, my rationale to stick with Nyong’o is in part because of my continued belief as to what will win Best Picture. 12 Years a Slave voters will surely mark off Lupita, and Gravity voters will likely want to recognize that film somewhere.

Best Picture. Well, at least we have had a semi-exciting Best Picture year, which has not happened since The Departed won in 2006. This year, we have the three major guilds giving awards to three very different movies, each of which represents markedly different paths for the present and future of Hollywood and filmmaking. So what do I predict?

If recent patterns hold, the crowd-pleasing American Hustle will win.

If the Academy is finally ready to embrace effects-driven films, then it will be Gravity’s Oscar on Sunday.

But if the Academy sticks to the more “traditional” type of movie, the more “prestigious” and important-sounding of the bunch, they will pick 12 Years A Slave.

And picking Steve McQueen’s brilliant film is precisely what I think they will do.

That is all folks. I hope you have enjoyed this Oscar season as much as I have. When we speak next, it will be on the other side of the telecast, and we will do a brief post-mortem of surprises, winners, and what it all means. Happy Oscar predicting!

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