Weekend Forecast for May 9-11, 2014
By Reagen Sulewski
May 9, 2014
Time was, any old animated film would hit regardless of quality. Family audiences have gotten more savvy, and the cheapness of this project is writ right on the surface of this project. Why go see this in theaters when there's better films available for $5 at the supermarket? This feels like it should come with a complimentary refund at the exit. I'd estimate a meagre $4 million take this weekend.
Finally, getting just a national release is Mom's Night Out. It was inevitable that the several Christian film releasing companies would eventually branch out from specifically evangelical movies. Affirm Films, which was behind Fireproof, Courageous and Soul Surfer, brings us a female-focused comedy about a group of mothers out for a night away from their kids, leaving them alone with the dads. Of course, they're incapable, and of course the moms get in over their heads out on their own. If only they'd stuck to their traditional roles! (Okay, so perhaps there is some message intended here.)
Notable names in the film include Patricia Heaton, Trace Adkins and Sean Astin, plus a host of lesser lights, but I mention those three in the context only of “oh yes, I know those names”, not in the sense of “oh yes, I'd pay to see those people in a movie”. Reviews are trashing the film, setting aside the subtle religious message and focusing on the terrible plot and unfunny jokes. While I appreciate the idea of diversifying output, a religious film company releasing a film without an explicit religious message makes me think, “what's the point?” Opening at just over 1,000 venues, this should gross just $3 million this weekend.
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 should repeat at the top spot, even with the lackluster word-of-mouth and sequel status. Opening to $90 million buys you a lot of wiggle room. While Marvel films outside the Avengers project seem destined to second-tier status, Spider-Man is still somewhat special, and $90 million is nothing to sniff at for an opening weekend. It's a little short of where Captain America just opened to, which is probably not a thing people might have believed could happen about seven years ago, but here we are. Internationally, this is running a bit better, but domestically, it should wind up in the $250 million area, with a second weekend of about $38 million.
The Other Woman had an okay second weekend, falling to about $14 million. In some ways, this shows that this is an audience that has matured somewhat, in that female audiences now have their own Friday-night rush factor, if ever so slightly. Typically this is a film that might run well, but instead the revenge fantasy opened strongly thanks to anticipation. I'd look for about $9 million this frame.
Just sneaking in above the $5 million mark should be Heaven Is For Real, the religious themed film which seems to at least have a more developed sense of faith than the straight ahead “Repent or Die!” films that have been getting attention lately. It's still bee-lining in on about a $90 million final figure, impressive for a film with a fairly small budget. Finishing just outside this group will be Captain America: The Winter Soldier and Rio 2.
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Forecast: Weekend of May 9-11, 2014
|
Rank |
Film |
Number of
Sites |
Changes in Sites
from Last |
Estimated
Gross ($) |
|
1
|
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
|
4,324
|
0
|
38.5
|
|
2
|
Neighbors
|
3,279
|
New
|
34.7
|
|
3
|
The Other Woman
|
3,306
|
+68
|
8.8
|
|
4
|
Heaven is For Real
|
3,048
|
+118
|
5.2
|
|
5
|
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
|
2,701
|
-478
|
4.8
|
|
6
|
Rio 2
|
2,973
|
-341
|
4.7
|
|
7
|
Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return
|
2,641
|
New
|
4.1
|
|
8
|
Mom's Night Out
|
1,044
|
New
|
3.2
|
|
9
|
Brick Mansions
|
1,954
|
-693
|
1.8
|
|
10
|
Divergent
|
1,233
|
-406
|
1.3
|
Continued:
1
2
|
|
|
|
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