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But maybe not. Here are some problems. First, there’s the “Boyhood” problem. Where exactly in this cacophony does Linklater’s contender fit? It is at times a difficult movie, and at times prepackaged in its satisfaction. It’s ambitious, but it superficially doesn’t seem to have anything transcendent to say. In short, it touches on a lot of the different types of movies that get Best Picture nominations and thus poses a real threat for the win, if it weren’t for the fact that it doesn’t “feel” important. On the other hand, this “lack of urgency” problem arguably afflicts The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game. Sure, Hawking and Turing were important, but they’re not Ben Affleck rescuing the world from Iran, or King George saving us from Nazis. On the other hand, neither was Steven Nash, and he walked away with the gold in A Beautiful Mind. So the waters are murky here.

The most difficult aspect of trying to predict the Oscars based on past patterns is that a lot depends on the competition a movie faces. Would a hard movie like No Country have triumphed over Argo or The Artist? I doubt it. The question is this: How strong is the competition against the more challenging movies? This year, it’s lukewarm. So they have a shot.

That’s the good news.

Here’s the bad: we have one more wrench throwing things off. The little movie that could named Selma is wowing critics across the country, and it “feels” important. I haven’t seen it, but it has a 12 Years a Slave feel to it, so it could be hard to argue with it if it’s well made. And let’s not forget the importance of “Oscar narrative.” A black woman winning Best Director (Ava DuVarney helmed it)? Delicious.

So that’s where we stand today, at the cusp of actually knowing a little more and seeing just which of these crosscurrents is pulling stronger this year.

Meantime, let’s take the first crack at embarrassing myself by trying to predict who will win. No guts, no glory, right? After all, they shoot Oscar prognosticators too.

The New York Film Critics Circle Awards

This group has been all over the place of late. Last year they picked American Hustle when only they had seen that movie. They seemed to want to be different. But in retrospect it seemed bizarre at best that they would pick such a hollow film. Before that they had gone for Zero Dark Thirty and The Artist. And, the year prior, they went for The Social Network. So the NYFCC is clearly at odds with itself, rewarding brave and challenging filmmaking one year while falling back to much more superficial cheese the next.

But the NYFCC has also shown love for “auteurs” in the past. They don’t go for the one-hit wonder unknown unless the movie is truly spectacular, and seem to reward more established directors. As such, I doubt either of the two biopics of this year has a chance here. Instead, I’m leaning towards either Gone Girl or Birdman to take the top prize with them, unless Selma pulls a surprise come-from-behind win and starts nabbing everything.

Because Gone Girl is a bit more divisive than the Michael Keaton vehicle, I expect Birdman will take their top prize, which means they’ll also award Keaton Best Actor. But I think Birdman will win the NYFCC.

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