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The National Board of Review

The National Board of Review is decidedly less pretentious than the New York folk, and is thus much more mainstream. To be fair, their choice of Her last year was bold and showed the critical love of the movie within the industry. But they normally pick movies that are already doing well with critics and the public. You have to go back to the year 2000 when the NBR picked Quills for their best film to find a movie that the NBR selected and that DID NOT get a Best Picture nomination. In other words, odds are, if the NBR gives you their top prize, you’re likely headed for a Best Picture nomination.

Their choices over the last years have been unobjectionable. In addition to Her, they’ve gone for Hugo, The Social Network, and Zero Dark Thirty. Arguably, they picked the actual best movie of the year each of those years. So what is the arguably best movie of the year this year? It is hard to say having not seen Selma and Unbroken, but I think the consensus pick this year is Boyhood or The Imitation Game. I think that, given Linklater’s history and ambition with his projects, the NBR will go for him and pick Boyhood. Of course, Birdman and Foxcatcher remain a threat as they are with the NYFCC, if only because critics love them so much.

The Los Angeles Film Critics Association

These guys have also been all over the map of late. The last time the winner of the LAFCA award won Best Picture was way back in 1992 when Unforgiven took home both prizes. Of late, the LAFCA has a very good track record of picking a movie that will get an Oscar nomination for Best Picture, but not an actual win.

One thing they do love is LA-centered films. Thus, a reach for A Most Violent Year is not completely out of the question. On the other hand, that movie may be a tad too independent and out there. Their picks the last few years have been the strange Gravity/Her tie last year, Amour the year before that, and The Descendants and The Social Network before. By picking Gravity, they showed they’re not as stuck on sci-fi movies as the rest of the industry is. They’re willing to go there, and Interstellar thus has a chance with them (except it’s so divisive).

I actually think LAFCA will go for Birdman or Foxcatcher as well. They like the quirky drama. They do not go for the easy movie like Argo or the King’s Speech or The Artist. You just don’t see that in their picks. They have picked There will be Blood and Letters from Iwo Jima. They like the smarter movies. You can scratch The Theory of Everything and the Imitation Game. They have no chance here.

If Selma wins this one, it means the movie really has a formidable chance. You can trust the LAFCA that much. But, having not seen that movie, I think it is Birdman’s to lose here, with Foxcatcher and Boyhood the obvious spoilers.

After these three awards we will be in business. The SAG and Golden Globe nominations will follow in rapid succession, and the embargoes on the movies that have been screened to a select few (Into the Woods and Unbroken) will be lifted. It’s Christmas time in Oscar land.

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