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Right now, without more precursors, it’s hard to tell which of these is out ahead. Keaton gives the comeback performance in a critically acclaimed movie. Of course, that didn’t help Mickey Rourke overcome Sean Penn when the former was nominated for The Wrestler. Sean Penn’s character was just more beloved. That fate may befall Keaton as he faces the beloved performance by Eddy Redmayne, equal parts touching and compelling.

A distant third for now is David Oleyowo for his performance as Martin Luther King Jr. in Selma. Although that movie is here to stay in this year’s Oscar race, I haven’t seen it myself so I can’t predict it yet. But it does have all the trappings of an Oscar-darling: portrayal of a real-life character that saves the world. It’s Colin Firth all over again. Will they award a relative newcomer, though? That didn’t stop Jean Dujardin from winning for The Artist, so yeah, it is possible.

Note how the first three mentioned are all headlining likely Best Picture nominations. Right now, I predict these three are in the lead or almost locks for at least a nomination.

The rest of the field is very competitive, however. We have Benedict Cumberbatch for his portrayal of Alan Turing in The Imitation Game - another likely BP nominee and a performance by someone who has dazzled with several great roles in just a few years. Then there is likely Steve Carrell for Foxcatcher, fifth place only because the movie’s BP chances seem uneven, but the performance is actually stronger than most others mentioned thus far. Going outside of the comfort zone as Carrell does here has helped actors like Matthew McConaughey in the past, so don’t count the otherwise goofy Carrell out. And of course there’s Spall.

If I had to bet, I would say that’s your five nominees right now, but there is usually a surprise in this category. Thus, Jake Gyllenhaal for Nightcrawler should not be counted out. A strong showing for Whiplash could propel Miles Teller, and if Unbroken streaks through, then Jack O’Connell will surely get a Jessie Eisenberg-type nomination. But the early reviews are not good on this movie, even though the National Board of Review did give O’Connell a breakout performance award.

And big star names like Ben Affleck, Bradley Cooper, and Mark Wahlberg (Gone Girl, American Sniper, and The Gambler, respectively) could also surprise us. Some of these are likely to receive nominations from the star-minded Golden Globes, inevitably helping their Oscar chances.

It will be a race to watch, with no bad performance among the lot.

Best Actress: Julianne Moore Finally Wins It?

The bad news here, again, is the utter lack of serious and strong contenders. When one spot is likely to go to Felicity Jones for her half-hearted portrayal of Hawking’s wife in The Imitation Game, you know there is a problem. More on that later.

In the meantime, there is some good news. It seems as if Julianne Moore is poised to finally win a long-overdue Best Actress Academy Award. For every Peter O’Toole one can think of in the Best Actor race, there are dozens of Julianne Moores that come to mind - Glenn Close and Laura Linney to name but a few in this era, but Natalie Wood and Debra Winger come to mind as well. Worse, when Halle Berry and Reese Witherspoon have Oscars, it betrays the reason there are arguably more glaring omissions in the female field: the Academy selects one-hit wonder young girls because of a sex appeal factor, and casts aside more serious but older actresses.

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