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The SAG acting categories offer some of the same and some surprises. Keaton, Redmayne, and Cumberbatch were nominated, and it would be a snub to have one of them miss out on an Oscar nod. Jake Gyllenhaal got a boost in this competitive category with his deserved nomination for Nightcrawler, but he didn’t really face Selma’s David Oyewulo as he will for the Oscar. Steve Carell also made it in, which should also help his chances.

The main surprise in the lead actress category was Jennifer Aniston for the little-known but well received Cake. This has made her a credible threat for that fifth slot, which we earlier mentioned could go to Hilary Swank. Rosamund Pike also landed Gone Girl’s sole nomination with SAG - and this one has to hurt for the David Fincher vehicle, which seems to have faded entirely from contention. Marion Cotillard didn’t make the cut here, but is still a serious contender for that fifth spot that went to Aniston, given that her train is barely starting to gather speed.

In the supporting field, it seems as if Supporting Actor is Whiplash’s J.K. Simmons’ to lose. Robert Duvall got in for The Judge, but I expect that spot will go to Tom Wilkinson as Lyndon B. Johnson in Selma - again, a dichotomy between the early release movies and the later-breaking ones that limits SAG predictive value to a degree. But the other slots - Edward Norton (Birdman), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher), and Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) - seemed locked alongside Simmons.

Finally, category fraud once again reigns supreme as Patricia Arquette leads the supporting actress pack with SAG, and I expect she will walk home with the Oscar if AMPAS puts her in that category as well. Meryl Streep got in for Into the Woods despite the fact that most SAG members haven’t seen it (to be fair, they nominate by committee) - they probably just mark her name on the list blindly at this point. The big surprise is Naomi Watts’ inclusion for the dark comedy St. Vincent, probably over Jessica Chastain for a Most Violent Year (another late breaking movie).

Golden Globes: The Quirky HFPA Does Its Thing

Like SAG, the Golden Globes speak early, but they also speak often: because they split their awards between Comedy/Musical and Drama, they give themselves more space for nominations. So, to the extent they are reliable Oscar prognosticators (and they’re not, remember when The Descendants won the Globe? Didn’t think so), they are arguably cheating. The runners of the Globes, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (the HFPA, consisting of about 100 reporters) are also notable for their love of star power, nominating dubious movies and roles with big stars to make for a big party.

This last bit should be startling to the people behind the Unbroken Oscar campaign, which with its zero and zero at SAG and Golden Globes is in serious trouble. You would have thought that they would want to bring Angelina in and have shots of her alongside Jennifer Aniston, who was nominated for Cake. Not so, and Unbroken has an unbroken string of zeroes.

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