They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?

SAG and Golden Globes Give Us Tea Leaves

By J Don Birnam

December 11, 2014

If it helps, I had even worse hair for Before Sunrise.

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The main movie nominations for the Globe offer few surprises - Selma did get into the drama race, a spot that SAG gave to The Grand Budapest Hotel, but that latter movie scored a comedy or musical nomination. I expect Birdman to win that category, however, as it is a more beloved movie. And I was thrilled to see Pride receive a Best Comedy or Musical nod as well - one of my favorite movies of the year. Over in drama, Selma definitely breathes a sigh of relief, but it seems like it’s Boyhood’s award all the way.

The Globes directing category did offer a surprise: a nomination for David Fincher, whose movie did not land any of the 10 Best Picture slots with the Globes. Intriguing, and perhaps the last lifeline for Gone Girl.

In the acting categories: Jennifer Aniston scored again for Cake, so she must now be taken seriously as a contender for the fifth slot, despite the ability of the Globes to give out ten nominations. The other nominees matched SAG (Felicity Jones, Julianne Moore, Rosamund Pike, and Reese Witherspoon) so it’s likely these are four of your Oscar nominees. The lead actor races also essentially matched SAG, with Jake Gyllenhaal once again scoring and increasing his threat. But David Oyelowo did get in here because of the ten slots, so he should not be counted out. Still, the other four names (Carell, Cumberbatch, Keaton, and Redmayne) seem locked. But because Keaton is in a different category than the others, his expected Globes win won’t tell us much as to where the wind is blowing when the Oscar race comes around.




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The supporting nominations were very similar to the SAG ones. Best Supporting Actor matched SAG entirely, with Robert Duvall taking the fifth slot over Selma’s Tom Wilkinson - a bad sign for him given that it is clear that the HFPA did see Selma (unlike SAG). The Supporting Actress race, by contrast, matched SAG except they nominated Chastain over Naomi Watts. I expect that to be the final Oscar alignment as of now.?

Some final Globes thoughts: I was happy to see Interstellar get a deserved soundtrack nomination, but their omission of “Lost Stars” from Begin Again in the original song category will surely raise some eyebrows.

In sum, this is probably what the SAG and Globe nominations mean together: expected good showings for Birdman, Boyhood, and what I will call “The Imitation of Everything,” the two movies that will almost certainly cancel each other out at the Oscars; surprise victories and revivals for The Grand Budapest Hotel, Foxcatcher (which seemed to be in trouble before today as Boyhood had beaten it with the critics), Jennifer Aniston, and Jake Gyllenhaal; crushing blows to Gone Girl and Unbroken. Some hope for Selma.

Best Picture: Is It Over?

In addition to this slew of nominations, a number of other critics associations, including the prominent L.A. Film Critics, handed outtheir awards and they all spoke loud and clear: Boyhood. The question that now infects the Oscar blogosphere is this: Is the Best Picture race over? My objective instinct says yes, but my gut is hopeful that it is not.


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