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Here is why not. There is precedent for a critic-oriented movie to sweep the critics then lose Best Picture, and it’s recent. It’s called The Social Network. And let’s face it, Boyhood is a quintessential critical darling - quirky, edgy, and different. It lacks, on the other hand, that grandiose feeling of self-importance that movies like The King’s Speech and “The Imitation of Everything” have. But Boyhood does have that “gimmick” Oscar story of “it was made over 12 years.” Don’t underestimate the importance of the “gimmick” and the “Oscar story” for the win - it helped The Artist with its black-and-white gimmick narrative, it helped Slumdog Millionaire with the “almost went straight to video” Oscar story. Boyhood has those things. It’s the project that should have never been. That story alone is hard to resist. So, even as I’m speaking as to why I think the race is not over, I’m seeing reasons why it likely is. Ouch. Still, until Boyhood scores wins at PGA, SAG or DGA, I remain a bit skeptical that this slightly-out-of-reach three hour saga has the insurmountable lead.

But, to be fair, here are additional reasons why the race may be over. The main reason is that there is no viable alternative to Boyhood. "The Imitation of Everything" is going to cancel itself out: two movies about a Brit with issues saving the world. Birdman also isn’t going to win: a movie of that nature - a bit wacky and completely off the regular narrative rails - has never even come close to the top prize. Only Unbroken and Selma are left as legitimate contenders, but their poor critical and SAG/Globe showings do not bode well for their chances. Year after year bored Oscar prognosticators speculate that “voter fatigue” may inject some suspense into the race (lest we have nothing to talk about for the next three months) but “voter fatigue” did not stop runaway trains called 12 Years a Slave, The Artist, or The Hurt Locker. They won and won and won and never looked back.

And then there is the definitive reason why I think the Best Picture race is likely over (but keep reading my column for the next three months mind you!): sheep mentality. The Oscars were notorious last year for featuring no surprises in any major category. The winners of the acting races were anointed early on, won every relevant precursor, and the deal was sealed. Are voters lazy? Disinterested? Scared? Certainly you would think that the desire to "be right" or to "vote with your peers" does not come into play when voters cast their ballots in secret. But the thing is: voters know that their collective choices will be publicly known. So the silly Oscar voter doesn’t want to pick Birdman - it’s not a safe choice when everyone else has picked Boyhood. It causes controversy and angst like their choice of Crash did. Better not move the needle, it seems. Indeed, Oscarologists who talk to Academy members consistently report being told that someone is voting for the perceived frontrunner to “be a part of the winning team.”

More surprising is that critics groups do it. There is already fatigue over the exploding number of critics - not only are they now organized by state and city, but also by region. But, and no offense to the non-coast critics, why are these additional groups relevant if they are simply going to select the same movies that New York and Los Angeles critics do? This happened last year and most of the years before that. It’s obnoxious to have to follow and cover 50+ critics groups. It’s downright maddening to have them all simply parrot the same choices.

So, while here we are hoping that something - anything - will come along to shake up this already settling Oscar race, don’t get your hopes up. At least we can look for drama and analysis in other categories in the weeks to come. Thank God for the below-the-line awards.

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