Weekend Forecast for January 2-4, 2015
By Reagen Sulewski
January 1, 2015
Meanwhile, Into the Woods had names to spare, but opened to its figure in a difficult genre. Musicals can often be a tough sell, but with the backing of Disney and an attractive and interesting look to the film, the film found an advantage. With ticket prices increasing at an alarming rate, audiences seem to gravitating towards spectacle and for good reason, as there's little reason to check out a small drama at movie theater prices. Instead, go for something that's really going to zing on the big screen. Into the Woods has done a little better during the week than Unbroken, likely thanks to a more family friendly pitch, but that double-edged sword could start to cut the other way this weekend as families return to routines. I'd look for Unbroken to slide into second place with $25 million, with Into the Woods just behind it with $24 million.
Night at the Museum: The Third One got its as-expected boost from Christmas, with $20 million over the weekend. While this is similar behavior to the first Night at the Museum, which opened in a similar period, let's not get carried away here in our comparisons. After 11 days, the total grosses stand at $59 million for the 2014 film, and... $127 million for the 2006 version. Let's just say that this series is probably ending at the right time, and do not get any ideas, Rebel Wilson. Give it $14 million over the weekend.
Another musical, the remake of Annie, did manage to get an increase over Christmas but just barely, which bodes poorly for its future. Probably the worst-reviewed movie of the holiday period, it's getting by on name recognition, both of its subject and its high wattage stars, whether they can actually sing or not (hint: most of 'em can't). I'd expect this to drop to around $10 million this weekend.
Major Oscar contender The Imitation Game got a Christmas weekend expansion to a little over 700 venues, and parlayed that into almost $8 million, an excellent result. The biopic of Alan Turing, father of modern computing and his quest to crack the Enigma code, should be able to hold its own thanks to good word-of-mouth and the quasi-holiday weekend. Let's pencil it in for another $8 million, and maybe a tiny, tiny increase.
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 made a last stab at being the box office champ of 2014 films with a $10 million Christmas performance. It's currently about $23 million shy of Guardians of the Galaxy and ought to grab about $8 million this weekend. With standard declines, this should put it neck and neck, and one expects Lionsgate to throw any muscle it has towards getting it over $332 million.
Mark Wahlberg had one of his most disappointing efforts in the last few years in The Gambler, which opened to just $9 million. He's been able to open just about anything to $20 million or more in the last while, which makes this all the more surprising. However, I think this was a bit of mismatch of actor and role, as Wahlberg doesn't quite fit the “self-destructive academic” mold this movie calls for. Just $6 million seems in store here.
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Forecast: Weekend of January 2-4, 2015
|
Rank |
Film |
Number of
Sites |
Changes in Sites
from Last |
Estimated
Gross ($) |
|
1
|
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
|
3,875
|
No change
|
26.8
|
|
2
|
Unbroken
|
3,190
|
+25
|
25.2
|
|
3
|
Into the Woods
|
2,538
|
+98
|
24.5
|
|
4
|
Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb
|
3,802
|
-112
|
14.0
|
|
5
|
Annie
|
3,166
|
-31
|
10.3
|
|
6
|
The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death
|
2,602
|
New
|
10.0
|
|
7
|
The Imitation Game
|
754
|
+7
|
8.1
|
|
8
|
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1
|
2,505
|
-288
|
7.9
|
|
9
|
The Gambler
|
2,494
|
+16
|
6.3
|
|
10
|
Wild
|
1,361
|
+76
|
4.6
|
Continued:
1
2
|
|
|
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