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Crystal Balling the Golden Globe Movie Categories

Unlike the Academy, the HFPA is comprised of somewhere between 80 and 100 foreign movie critics. Because they are a smaller group, it makes more sense to speak of “them” as a unity, acting together with a purpose. One hears a lot of theories about what “they” will do. “They” love to reward big stars, “they” try to predict the Oscars, “they” like to go their own way sometimes, “they” love international stars, etc. Let us put some of these stereotypes to use in predicting the Globes.

Best Motion Picture – Drama
This one is Boyhood’s to lose. Some note that the HFPA likes to go its own way here - wins for Babel, Atonement, and Avatar over eventual Oscar winners seem to prove it. I’m doubtful. I think the HFPA in those years was trying to predict what the Oscars would do, and did not foresee the shift in tone in favor of The Departed, No Country, and The Hurt Locker, respectively. Or perhaps they did not like the violence of those movies. This year, however, it is clear that Boyhood is the Oscar winner, and there is no violence. They could really shake it up with a pick for Selma and The Imitation Game, the Toronto winner, seems up their alley (British epic like Atonement), but I still think it’s Boyhood - the HFPA, like all other precursors, are hysterically and oddly obsessed with predicting the Academy Awards.
Will win: Boyhood
Could win: The Imitation Game

Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Birdman. They love Iñárritu (see: Babel). Grand Budapest Hotel did well with nominations, but Birdman is more critically beloved. Unlike the Oscars, they can split the difference between the two front-runners (Birdman and Boyhood) and still be right on Oscar night.
Will win: Birdman
Could win: Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Actor – Drama
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything. There’s no real competition to the charm of the Brit here.
Will win: Eddie Redmayne
Could win: Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)

Best Actress – Drama
Julianne Moore, Still Alice, is the supposed Oscar front-runner, and she’s overdue a movie Globe. Still, because Moore is also nominated in the Comedy category, they could see it fit to give it to Reese Witherspoon’s acclaimed performance in Wild, or even Jennifer Aniston for Cake - if only to see Brad and Angelina’s reaction from the audience. But I doubt it.
Will win: Julianne Moore
Could win: Reese Witherspoon

Best Actor – Comedy or Musical
Michael Keaton, Birdman. Again, the HFPA won’t have to pick between the two Oscar frontrunners of Keaton and Redmayne. They can and will reward both, leaving us prognosticators none the wiser.
Will win: Michael Keaton
Could win: Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Best Actress – Comedy or Musical
Emily Blunt has received a lot of support for Into The Woods, but they did love Julianne Moore’s performance in Map to the Stars. I could also see an Amy Adams upset here for Big Eyes, so this one is a bit close to call. Moore could pull off the first double win since Kate Winslet did it for The Reader and Revolutionary Road.
Will win: Emily Blunt
Could win: Julianne Moore

Best Supporting Actor
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash, can begin his march to the Oscar podium collecting a Globe on Sunday. Although Ed Norton poses an outside threat, his movie will receive sufficient other awards, and this is a great place to reward the critically beloved Whiplash.
Will win: J.K. Simmons
Could win: Ed Norton (Birdman)

Best Supporting Actress
This one is Patricia Arquette’s (Boyhood) all the way, as a clear place to reward that movie. Again, Emma Stone is strong in Birdman, but they do like to spread the wealth. The industry has been dying to reward Jessica Chastain, but her part in A Most Violent Year may be too small for them compared to Arquette’s leading turn.
Will win: Patricia Arquette
Could win: Emma Stone

Best Director
This is a tough one - it may tell us which movie they think is really the best. Birdman’s Iñárritu
did not win when Babel won (Scorsese won instead) so they may want to make it up to him. But Boyhood is popular. It will be close.
Will win: Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman)
Could win: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

Best Screenplay
Although it is tempting to chalk this up to another Birdman/Boyhood showdown, I think this one will be a good place for them to reward Wes Anderson, whose movie they clearly liked a lot.
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Birdman

Best Animated Feature Most people are saying The LEGO Movie, but I have trouble believing this from foreign reporters. It is a relatively weak field, but I think the best movie in the bunch will likely be the winner, with the runner-up the potential upset.
Will win: Big Hero 6
Could win: How to Train your Dragon 2

Best Foreign Language Film
Of the ones I’ve seen, Ida is my favorite, but Leviathan has the “urgency of the moment” feel to it. Force Majeure is also superb, so it’s between those three.
Will win: Leviathan (Russia)
Could win: Force Majeure (Sweden)

Best Original Score Although Interstellar deserves it, this is going to go to one of The Imitation of Everything, both of which have moving scores, with the Stephen Hawking score receiving the most acclaim thus far.
Will win: The Theory of Everything.
Could win: The Imitation Game.

Next week we will put our money where our mouths are and give final predictions for Oscar nominations.

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