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They like “surprises.”

Or, at the very least, they don’t like to be told what to do all the time. For all the complaints about the predictability of the Oscars, picks like Marion Cotillard or the snub for The LEGO Movie show that there is enough diversity in the tastes of the Academy members and in what they are exposed to that not all votes go for what pundits and prognosticators tell them they “likely will” or “should” nominate. Arguably, then, the nominations are the space where the surprises have all gone in the Academy Awards.

There’s a diversity problem—even if it’s just a problem of perception.

#OscarsSoWhite became the most trending hashtag on Twitter on nominations morning. The topic has been debated endlessly in the media in the days since the announcements and bears repeating as one of the lessons of the 2014 nominations. Movies about male, mostly white heroes, resonate, not surprisingly, with the mostly male and mostly white Academy membership. Is this a problem from the Academy or the industry at large? Is this a problem at all? If it is, how do we fix it? I can’t provide the answers but it is clear that at the very least as a matter of public perception, the Academy skews towards these films and filmmakers in most years.

Hollywood Insiders are In.

The more benign explanation for some of the perceived snubs is that the Academy loves to rewards insiders like Clint Eastwood, and is less likely to welcome quirkier filmmakers they either don’t know well (Ava DuVarney) or don’t trust (David Fincher). The explanation is of limited value of course - both because in the past they have exhibited a penchant for taking risks (think of the Best Director nomination for Ben Zeitlin for Beast of the Southern Wild) and because the fact that they like Hollywood insiders only exacerbates a system that favors a certain insider demographic.

Still, for purposes of understanding the process, it is helpful to realize that tried filmmakers like Martin Scorsese and Eastwood can more easily break in to the Oscar race late - they are respected and well-known than unknown quantities like Angelina Jolie or Ava DuVarney.

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