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Box Office is almost completely irrelevant.

We shall see if the obliteration of records by American Sniper affects the outcome of the races, but almost complete shutouts of epic films that were very popular with audiences - Gone Girl, Interstellar, and Unbroken - show that the Academy just does not really care about box office gross anymore, for better or for worse.

Developments Since Nominations

On the night of the Oscar Nominations, the Critics’ Choice Awards were handed out. Essentially all of the expected winners emerged victorious: Boyhood took Picture and Director, Julianne Moore, Michael Keaton, Patricia Arquette, and J.K. Simmons continued their marches to the podium, and Birdman and Gone Girl took the screenplay awards. With the latter snubbed at the Oscars, that category is anyone’s guess, as is Animated Feature, as The LEGO Movie won the Critics’ Choice but was left out by the Academy.

The London Critics, among other groups, also announced their winners. All the way down the ballot: Boyhood, Linklater, Moore, Keaton, Arquette, and Simmons. People like a winner, folks. They like to be a part of the winning team. Don’t forget this before we criticize the Academy for making the predictable choices. Someone, somewhere out there decided those were the anointed six, and most organizations - critics, guilds, etc. - have been happy to oblige and fall into place since then.

Finally, the biggest development: American Sniper took the MLK weekend box office by storm and made over $90 million in just three days. I don’t think the Academy cares enough about audience perception at this point (Avatar’s defeat or Interstellar’s lack of nomination support this), so I doubt this makes a difference in terms of its high-category Oscars chances, but at the very least it does cement it in the conversation as a serious contender for the Best Picture and other Oscars.

Initial Gut Predictions

Somehow, my gut predictions last year - given right after the announcements - proved closer to the final results than my day-of predictions, which proves both that there is such a thing as over-thinking this and more important, that there is perhaps little to no room for movement in the main races. Whatever the reason, I thought it would be at least amusing to give my gut-check reaction to what I think is out ahead this year in each race - and then see if these ideas change as I go through each category in depth or as I make final adjustments on Oscars eve.

Best Picture – Boyhood, all else is wishful thinking unless and until a guild says otherwise.

Best Director – Richard Linklater, Boyhood. It’s easy to look back at the least two years of splits and see a pattern but I think we are back to the usual behavior. And Linklater is beloved.

Best Actress – Julianne Moore. Neither the best performance of the group nor of her career, but assuredly the most overdue. I will applaud cheerfully.

Best Actor – Michael Keaton. I honestly believed Redmayne would win this but Keaton’s speech at the Globes annihilated that view. And look out for three-times-in-a-row nominee Bradley Cooper with the box office streak of his vehicle.

Best Supporting Actor – J.K. Simmons.

Best Supporting Actress – Patricia Arquette.

Best Original Screenplay – The Grand Budapest Hotel. This is the toughest call of the night. They love to anoint Best Picture as Best Story and the correspondence between Picture and Screenplay in the Academy’s 87 years is higher than the correspondence with Directing. But I feel like with this complex year, they will look to reward other movies they loved.

Best Adapted Screenplay – The Imitation Game. Whiplash will get its consolation nod with Simmons and category confusion over whether the script is original (as the WGA thought) or adapted (as the Oscars and BAFTA did) will hurt it.

Best Editing – American Sniper.

Best Cinematography – The Grand Budapest Hotel. This movie will be the Hugo, the Life of Pi, the Gravity of its year (a theme, it seems), and sweep the technical regardless of merit.

Best Art Direction/Best Costumes The Grand Budapest Hotel. See above.

Best Original Song Glory, from Selma. The narrative around the movie is just too strong.

Best Original Score The Theory of Everything.

Best Sound Mixing/Sound Editing American Sniper. War movies do well here, as to Best Picture nominees. Lone Survivor swept these when it had the chance, and I expect Sniper to do the same easily.

Best Visual Effects Interstellar.

Best Make-up Guardians of the Galaxy.

Best Documentary Citizenfour. More when I see them all.

Best Foreign Language Film Ida. Same.

Best Animated Short Feast. It’s that cute.

Next weekend, the PGA and SAG will speak for important guilds and we will know for sure if Boyhood will win it all or if there is still room for suspense. But, right now, it all seems pretty settled amongst the main races.

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