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Best Director

If you thought Best Actor was tough (a category where over 75% of experts are predicting Redmayne), wait until you dive into the hyper-competitive Best Director race. Again, the list of potential contenders was long and varied, and earning the nomination was the hardest part. The big story of those who missed, of course, is the absence of Selma’s Ava DuVarney, who would have become the first black woman to receive a nod, and the omission of Clint Eastwood, who helmed American Sniper. Eastwood’s exclusion was particularly surprising to me, given how respected and beloved he is in the Academy. I suppose two past wins is enough for now.

Of the nominees, the least deserving is Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game. As much as I have returned to respecting that movie, I just don’t see it as a directorial achievement at all. For a branch that has of late not been afraid to think outside the box and commend daring filmmakers like those behind Amour or Beasts of the Southern Wild, the conventional nod to Tyldum is perplexing and just shows how beloved that movie was, despite how it has faded almost completely from contention. Indeed, it may go home empty-handed at this point, despite Weinstein’s best efforts, and it certainly will not triumph here.

Nor will Bennett Miller, the director of Foxcatcher, who became the first director nominated for a non-Best Picture nominee since the Best Picture expansion in 2009. For that reason alone it is obvious that he will not win this race either, but I was happy to see him here after missing out for helming Moneyball.

You can also discard Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel. It was amazing and refreshing that he made it in. His style is not exactly in my wheelhouse, but it does show the Academy going outside of its comfort zone to recognize some of our quirkier filmmakers. Still, the race is too close between the two leading Best Picture contenders to give Anderson, who helms a comedy, space here. He will likely be rewarded in the screenplay race, but this race boils down to Linklater and Iñárritu.

Statistically, Iñárritu has the edge. He won the DGA, and the DGA winner almost always wins the Oscar. That rule didn’t hold two years ago when Ben Affleck won the DGA and Ang Lee won the Oscar, but Affleck wasn’t even nominated by the Academy. In fact, in the last 30 years, it has only happened TWO times that a director won the DGA and then lost the Oscar if he was nominated. (In 2000, Ang Lee won DGA but the Oscar went to Steven Soderbergh, and in 2003, Rob Marshall won DGA but the Oscar went to Roman Polanski). Two other years, the DGA winner was not nominated for an Oscar (the Affleck year and the ominous Apollo 13 year). That means that overall, 26 out 30 times there has been a DGA/Oscar match, and 26 of 28 when only Oscar nominated directors are counted.

Sure, statistics are only that and Linklater is beloved in Hollywood. He’s overall a popular figure. Iñárritu is admired as the visionary he is, but what I read is that he’s a more difficult person to deal with. Remember, it’s a popularity contest first and foremost. That and Linklater’s BAFTA win give me some pause. But I remember the year of The King’s Speech and The Social Network. That year, King’s Speech won the PGA/SAG/DGA trifecta, but even the Brits rewarded David Fincher for Best Director at BAFTA over Tom Hooper. No matter, because the Oscars went clear through with The King’s Speech. So I’m not sure how much Linklater’s BAFTA win really means.

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