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The other interesting thing to note is that some are saying there will be a split again - one movie will win Best Director and the other Best Picture - and those who are predicting this are saying Iñárritu for Director and Boyhood for Picture. I guess I could see a split, although that would be the third in a row and that has never happened in the history of the Academy Awards. But if there is to be a split, I could make the argument that they may reward Linklater for the endeavor he undertook, and Birdman would win in a preferential ballot, as it did at the PGA. On the other hand, the Iñárritu win could be for the vision, with a Boyhood Best Picture win represent that it as the most popular.

I don’t buy the split argument, which I think is coming from the fact that we had it two years in a row. Two years ago it happened because Argo was the Academy clear favorite, but the Directors Branch didn’t give them the option of Ben Affleck, so a split was necessary. Last year, the split was “agreed upon” in the sense that Alfonso Cuarón consistently won directorial prizes but 12 Years a Slave consistently won Best Picture. The split was oddly predictable. The thing is, however, that Director/Picture splits are both rare and also unpredictable. Few saw it coming the year of Chicago vs. The Pianist or Crash vs. Brokeback Mountain or Gladiator vs. Traffic.

To be fair, if we consider preferential balloting for Best Picture coupled with the straight-out majority style of voting for Best Director, I suppose splits are not difficult. In any case, right now we only have to pick Best Director, and we can worry about Best Picture and a split in the next column.

Against my better judgment but in line with statistics, I’m right now predicting Iñárritu to win this (note, when I first drafted this, I wrote Linklater - that’s how fickle this race is). Iñárritu may not be popular, but the admiration for the project is apparent in both the PGA and DGA wins. Linklater is beloved for sure, and many will want to reward his project. But there are a lot of rumblings from others that the 12-year thing is just a gimmick of sorts (I don’t buy that, but that’s what some voters are saying, it seems), and Boyhood does not have as much support as Birdman among the technical branches.

To be sure, I could change my mind before the final moments. But, right now, startlingly I’m predicting Birdman to somehow lose Actor but win Director (and, in a very “Shoot me, I’m an Oscar prognosticator” moment, it feels like driving off a cliff). I suppose that leaves only one obvious choice for what I think will win Best Picture, but that is the subject of my next column.

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