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Boyhood vs. Birdman

Since its premiere at Sundance in January, and then in theaters over the summer, Boyhood, Richard Linklater’s 12-year project, has dominated the awards conversation. I adored the movie personally but as an Oscar watcher I was at first skeptical that a movie that doesn’t “feel important” at first glance could win Best Picture. But it made it this far and that alone is pretty impressive. But although Boyhood has been a critical darling from the get go, there is little to no evidence that it is an industry favorite. Not only did it lose the three main guilds to Birdman, last weekend it also lost the Writers Guild of America award for Best Original Screenplay to The Grand Budapest Hotel, which I think will also happen at the Oscars.

Boyhood is a fantastic movie. The filming over 12 years is impressive on its own merits, and the emotional depth of the movie cannot be understated. Mason’s anxieties as he grows up are real - they embody many of the questions we all asked when we were growing up. Linklater also brilliantly captured the cultural ethos of each year he filmed by inserting key songs or books or movies into the plot. The movie is meticulous and careful. There is no false moment, despite contrarians’ allegations that it lacks a plot.

And Linklater’s social commentary remained up to date, with Mason at some point remarking, as he complains about people constantly on their phones and the Internet, that “everyone is stuck in this in between mode… not really experiencing anything.” Those words seem to apply quite well, at times, to the public’s and the Academy’s own relationships with the movies. Are they really watching them? Are we experiencing each other at all?

But as I said, Boyhood is not your typical Oscar movie. I thought that many of the men in the Academy would identify with the coming of age story that it tells, but it seems just as plausible that most are too old or too far removed from the everyman details that Boyhood portrays. And yet approximately half of the Oscar prognosticators on the Internet are still picking it to win Best Picture, most pointing to its BAFTA win as sign of strength.

True, BAFTA has some Academy overlap. But Birdman has won essentially every guild stateside. Over the last few days, to add to its impressive SAG/DGA/PGA trifecta, Birdman added wins from the Art Directors, the Sound Editors, the Cinematographers Guild, and the Costume Designers. The “me too” effect seems to have taken ahold fast and hard.

So what of Birdman? Birdman, too, is a superb film. Its skewering of the over-commercialization of art and of out of touch critics is timely, pointed, and highly relevant. The technical mastery behind the superbly acted and written film are impressive. It would be a very worthy winner.

Pundits and critics that seem to want to will Boyhood to a Best Picture win will point to statistics to argue that Birdman can’t win. “No movie since Ordinary People in 1980 has won Best Picture without a Best Editing nomination.” “Birdman lost the Globe Musical or Comedy, and only Annie Hall in 1977 has won Best Picture after losing that Globe.” Etc. To me, it’s perilous to believe this reasoning. No Academy member is going to not vote for Birdman because the editors branch didn’t deem it worthy of a nomination. Worse: those are stale statistics - based on acts of an Academy or industry from 1980 or 1977, not this one. True, this year’s industry did not universally embrace Birdman, as the Editors Guild and BAFTA went for Boyhood. But for those two losses, Birdman can trumpet eight total guild victories. That’s impressive and difficult to ignore. I wonder if this race is as close as people are thinking.

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