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The better theory is that they simply didn’t like it, as the guild votes indicate, as much as they liked the self-reflecting and even narcissistic Birdman. The disappointed fans of Boyhood (and I agree that it’s a shame it couldn’t find more love from the Oscars) will simply have to accept that fact and move on.

Thus, to the extent the race seemed close, I theorize it was simply the critics’ and pundits unable or unwilling to accept the truth of what was happening in the Oscar race. For the same reason, some people went off the Michael Keaton cliff: they couldn’t believe that their favorite performance wasn’t going to win. But Redmayne defeated Keaton at SAG and BAFTA. Where was the evidence that Keaton came that close? It seems almost as if the doubt in these races was inserted by the prognosticators’ own inability to see what was clear, and in that sense we therefore failed.

And yet, the prognosticators play a key role in forming consensus in several categories, and the consensus prevailed overwhelmingly on Oscar night. Which brings me to the last topic that jumps out from this year’s Oscars…

The Predictability of the Oscars

This year many, myself included, were nervous about predictions, including Best Picture. But, in the end, the consensus favorites triumphed in all but one or two categories.

Big Hero 6 defeated the overwhelming consensus pick How to Train Your Dragon 2 in a race that became wildly unpredictable after The LEGO Movie snub. And The Grand Budapest Hotel’s screenplay lost somewhat unexpectedly to Birdman - but prognosticators failed to see that Birdman was likely way ahead. That’s it. In all other categories, the consensus pick won, even if some predictors went against the consensus pick for whatever reason.

What explains this? As I note above, I think the nervousness over some categories is just human error - humans unsure and insecure about their picks. On the flip side, the predictability of other categories can also be traced to uniquely human traits.

People like to support a winner. People, Academy voters, know what’s popular with guilds and the industry, and they gravitate towards those choices. At my own Oscar party, I ask my guests to rank the Best Picture nominees as if they were Academy members. Of 15 votes, 14 this year had Boyhood or Birdman in either of the first two slots on the ballot. Essentially, then, all but one person thought that at least one of those two was one of the two Best Pictures of the year. Would they have thus filled out their ballots if they had not all known what the Best Picture race was down to?

Academy voters take cues from critics and predictors and guild groups - they don’t want a repeat of Crash. If other groups are picking it, then the movie is “electable,” it’s a “safe” choice. The parallel to politics is clear: once it became clear that Obama could win after his triumph in Iowa, then it was “safe” and even “popular” to vote for him. Similarly, I argue, Academy members wait for these cues and then rally behind popular winners. This explains the high degree of predictability of the main races, which get the most coverage.

And then, of course, prognosticators are good at it - we know the Academy’s tastes for the most part. But let’s not discount the power of herd mentality as an explanation for this phenomenon. And, with the increase of social media and Oscars coverage, you can expect the predictability to continue as the saturation of information available to Academy voters increases.

The lesson for the future in predicting is: go for the consensus pick and you will be right north of 20 categories.

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Thanks for following us this year, folks. We have heard some rumblings of the Oscar race from Sundance already - and maybe next year’s Whiplash or Boyhood will be there. In May, we will hear from Cannes - where maybe the next Foxcatcher lies. But look to Telluride, six months from now, for the restart of the race. Enjoy the time off.

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