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...Except perhaps for Elizabeth Banks and her touching performance as the love interest in the emotional Love and Mercy. Banks has shown her depth with turns in The Hunger Games, Pitch Perfect 2, and Love and Mercy this year, and that versatility could buoy her to the podium. Indeed, Love and Mercy has some buzz for nominations in other acting categories, such as for Best Actor for a deserving but underrated Paul Dano. However, my gut is that this movie was released too early to be a true contender once/if the field gets crowded.

Finally, I would love nothing more than to see Phyllis Smith get a Supporting Actress nod for her exact and moving portrayal of Sadness in Inside Out, but she will have to overcome the deep-rooted opposition by the actors’ branch to non-live performances. None have ever been nominated.

That’s about it. Some of the movies that I list below, which I have not seen but have been screened at Cannes or Sundance, have generated buzz for some of their stars. It is hard to evaluate without seeing them, so suffice to say that so far the field of the acting races is thin so far.

The State of Best Picture

The big elephant in the room from the first half is the critical and audience darling of the first half of the year: Mad Max: Fury Road. Mad Max will likely land a cinematography nomination and a visual effects nod, and right now I can’t see it losing either of those to any of the contenders in the horizon (maybe The Martian could prove me wrong). But the reason I didn’t mention Mad Max in the technical state of the race is because it has a true chance of landing a Best Picture nomination, depending on how well some of the other contenders do. The movie has superb acting by Charlize Theron, stunning sound and visual effects, a tightly paced story, and critical and audience acclaim. It does face an uphill battle: the subject matter is simply not appealing to the traditional, prestige-minded Academy, and since they are sticking with only giving five nominating slots for Best Picture to each member, I actually highly doubt that Mad Max will make it in. The early release date hurts it, too.

And it’s the only movie from the first half with even a slim shot. Others have mentioned Inside Out, and I guess I could see that in a weak year—I would love nothing more, but it will depend on the strength of whatever else is released. The futuristic thriller Ex Machina has been mentioned in some circles as a potential Best Picture nominee, but I expect that movie to be completely shut out. Its narrative plot holes are too wide and will sink it. Finally, as I explain further below, movies that have been released in festivals - Carol and Youth, in particular - have generated a lot of Best Picture buzz. Most of them haven’t been seen, so it’s hard to evaluate.

Bottom line, the Best Picture winner of 2015 has not been released in theaters as of this writing, and likely few if any nominees have, either.

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