They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
The Mid-Year State of the 2015 Oscar Race
By J. Don Birnam
August 5, 2015
We DO know that none of the movies now listed as galas for Toronto and New York will be screened in the Colorado Mountains - the whole point of being galas for TIFF or NYFF is that they will be exclusive releases there. Noteworthy from Toronto is their selection of The Martian as either a mid-festival or closing-night gala. Perhaps cognizant that the high buzz surrounding the opening night selection has caused some films to fall flat with critics (see last year’s The Judge), TIFF programmers have left the star-studded film adaptation of the runaway hit for either the middle or closing slots (likely the former). The Martian has the highest degree of buzz of most movies in the fall season horizon, and with its technical prowess it has the true potential to be the last man standing on Oscar night. Indeed, if true to the book, the adaption should appeal broadly to the geeks as well as the so-called “steak eaters” of the Academy.
But New York, too, has selected two high-profile movies as gala screenings, and both have the potential to make an impact in this year’s race. The first is the opening night screening, Robert Zemeckis’s The Walk, which tells the story of the World Trade Center tightrope walker. The non-fictionalized version of the story already won a Best Documentary Oscar for Man on Wire, so the subject matter clearly has resonance with the Academy. Moreover, Zemeckis is doing a 30-year anniversary of Back to the Future tour starting in October, which you know is at least in part motivated by a desire to make appearances in the awards circuit.
And the third time may be the charm for Steve Jobs, who has received biopic treatment in two movies that have fallen flat in recent years, but shows promise of redemption in the Aaron Sorkin-penned and Danny Boyle-directed version, starring Michael Fassbender, and which will be New York’s centerpiece pick. This movie, too, has the potential to make a dent in categories from acting to writing and directing.
Welcome back to our Oscar coverage, folks! The start of the race, at least, has one advantage: one can get excited for potentially great movies. Seeing it all with fresh eyes is both idyllic and hope-inducing. Let’s try to ride that feeling high until the Oscars get close and then ruin it all…
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