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And how can one forget to mention the crowd-pleasing The Martian, which has been heralded as the anti-Interstellar, an accessible, satisfying adventure story with a geeky element and a warming message (not to mention a spectacular cast) that will undoubtedly do well but seems unlikely to make much of a dent in the awards circuit.

Of course, many a film has emerged with tepid reviews from a film festival only to do very well with the Academy. Birdman was heralded but dismissed as too difficult out of Telluride last year, and a few years back Hugo was almost a complete disaster out of the New York Film Festival. So there is space for growth. The difference is, of course, that TIFF has the broadest audience of all, and a weak showing with it is never a good sign.

The Crowded Best Actress Field

The one thing that seems a lock is that the Best Actress conversation is going to be interesting all the way down to the wire. From the first half of the year, Charlize Theron and Lily Tomlin (Mad Max and Grandma, respectively), have garnered praise. But they will need a great campaign to survive the onslaught that is approaching. Not only is Cate Blanchett the obvious threat for Carol, and Saoirse Ronan a formidable force for her moving Brooklyn performance, there appears to be a long list of women vying for those additional spots.

We have already discussed Brie Larson’s blockbuster performance in Room - arguably, Larson is currently the front-runner in this race. Speaking of movies with strong performances out of TIFF, Emily Blunt just delivered what has been called the best show of her career with the upcoming Sicario, where she plays an FBI agent investigating drug cartels near the Mexican border. Next, the great British actress Charlotte Rampling has also received uniformly positive reviews for the drama 45 Years, and it is not out of the question that Maggie Smith will return to Oscar contention with her portrayal of a homeless woman in Lady in the Van.

On top of these, it is not an unsafe bet to say that Academy-darling Jennifer Lawrence has a seat reserved at the table for her portrayal of the eponymous Joy in her latest David O. Russell collaboration, and Carey Mulligan seems a mortal lock for a nod for her vivacious performance as a Suffragette, in a movie of that same name.

Watch this space for further developments in this race.

What Explains the Cooling North of the Border?

So why has Toronto not delivered a game changer for arguably two years in a row (recall that last year’s winner of People’s Choice at TIFF, The Imitation Game, received a lot of nominations but essentially faded from contention early on)? The answer lies, as usual, in the reliable comparison of the Oscar race to politics.

First, consider that, like in politics, in the movie business everyone wants to be first and catch the public’s attention in this age of shortening attention spans and fickle allegiances. Just like some states have made noise at the stranglehold that states like Iowa and New Hampshire have over the political process, so too have festival organizers scoffed at the idea that TIFF should have some sort of prescient position in the election of a Best Picture winner. Unsurprisingly, then, Venice and Telluride, among others, have successfully positioned themselves ahead of the pack, much to the chagrin of the TIFF organizers.

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