They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don’t They?
Will Oscar Ignore Box Office Again?
By J. Don Birnam
November 3, 2015
Regardless, it would be truly remarkable for the Academy to turn its back completely on this phenomenon. We know Jurassic World, so far the highest-grosser of the year, stands no chance at a nomination. But will the Academy completely turn its back on The Martian, Star Wars, Mad Max, and Inside Out, thus widening the chasm between its tastes and those of mainstream audiences, which still drive their ratings and returns?
It seems likely, but also perilous.
The Beasts of No Nation Puzzle
Speaking of turning their backs to what audiences want, the puzzle is even more complicated by the gravitational pull of Netflix’s Beasts of No Nation. Although the Africa-war movie did not do well in its small awards-qualifying theater run, it wasn’t expected to. Instead, Netflix has announced that over 3 million people have seen the movie, which makes it comparable to a pretty solid theater release.
Will the Academy reward the critically acclaimed piece? Leave aside for a moment the violent and graphic elements of the movie (admittedly, big hurdles to it doing well, regardless of release), will the snottier members of the Academy view a Netflix release as worthy of awards consideration?
Like it or not, it seems like the future of movie releases is upon us, and whether it’s with Beasts or another movie, Netflix is bound to stumble into a movie that is too popular and too good to ignore by any serious awards body. As of this moment, I do not expect this one to do particularly well, but the barrier will begin to erode when people are forced to consider this movie for awards this year.
Joy May Bring Happiness to David O. Russell’s Heart
So, the lack of consensus brings us right back to where we were one month ago after the New York Film Festival - looking ahead to the three remaining question marks from the season: The Revenant, The Hateful Eight, and Joy. Except now we know a little more.
We now know from sneak peeks that The Hateful Eight features even more over-the-top use of the N word and gratuitously racy sexual and racist scenes. And Tarantino has been unusually unapologetic about it, probably enough to hurt his chances at a win even if his devoted fan base nets him another nomination.
We know from Toby Maguire’s retelling of best pal’s Leo’s experience that The Revenant is “the best movie” Leo has ever been in. And we now know from a test screening of Joy that the movie is serious, a bit weird, but overall effective. Some prognosticators, indeed, have switched Joy to the number one spot, sight unseen, because of the positive reactions the test audiences had to it.
I will not move Joy to the number one spot until I’ve seen it, but I do suppose that the fourth time could be the charm for David O. Russell, who’s had near misses from The Fighter to Silver Linings Playbook to American Hustle. Jennifer Lawrence is beloved, and she is apparently superb, so it could be that, in fact, Joy will sweep in and fill the void that is currently the Best Picture race.
And maybe Joy will solidify its front-runner status with a strong box office showing upon its Christmas release. But for now, Spotlight will remain in the top spot, and the thing to watch this November at the box office will be how it and the other nominees perform with audiences.
With such a wide open year, a stunning ticket sale performance could make or break a movie’s chances at the ultimate prize…
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