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Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor—Will They Fill All Five Slots?

In recent years, Best Actor has been one of the most crowded categories of all. Not so this time around, with only two names garnering any serious mention: Leonardo DiCaprio, almost by default, for the unseen The Revenant, and Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs. By now, you’ve heard the narrative that the entire Jobs film is in Oscar-peril with its weak box office performance, but Fassbender can rest more peacefully as nothing has really emerged to challenge him. And, to be fair, Fassbender is a great actor who turns in a great performance.

Beyond those two, the category seems wide open, with perennial Oscar favorites Tom Hanks and Matt Damon likely to nab slots for Bridge of Spies and The Martian, respectively. Likely Best Picture nominations will sweep both of those fine actors in, although neither performance is particularly memorable (indeed, both turn in repeat performances-both have played the boy-next-door American heroes they portray in their movies this time around). The fifth slot is even murkier still - I am still partial to the degree of difficulty Eddie Redmayne conquered with The Danish Girl, but it remains to be seen whether transphobia hurts the movie. If not, Michel Caine has a good shot if the Academy responds well to Youth, and even the lead actor in Son of Saul, Geza Rohrig, should not be counted out, as Sony is stepping up a strong campaign for the Hungarian-Best Foreign Language Film runaway frontrunner. Here are our full updated Best Actor power rankings.

Over in the Supporting Actor side, things are not much deeper beyond the top spots. Undoubtedly, Tom Hanks’ co-star, Mark Rylance, has now secured a spot with his critically acclaimed performance. I have a feeling that this will soon turn into a J.K. Simmons-type runaway train, and that everyone else will have to be happy to be nominated. But do not count out Idris Elba just yet for his fearless portrayal of the sadistic leader of a child army in Beasts of No Nation. What a coup that would be for Netflix to net an Oscar win from its first foray into the medium. Also in serious contention for spots are co-stars Mark Ruffalo and Michael Keaton for Spotlight. If you believe, as I do, that Spotlight remains in the lead, then at least one of its cast members should see a nomination. Check out the completed updated Best Supporting Actor power rankings.

Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress—Can They Borrow Some of the Actor Slots?

On the other side of the gender divide, meanwhile, it’s an embarrassment of riches in this year’s female acting categories. Look no further than to the extensive category fraud that is going on in the Best Supporting Actress category for proof that there are so many great performances by women that publicists - and the Academy - don’t know what to do with them.

What once seemed destined to be an epic showdown between two Oscar debutantes, Kristen Stewart for her Cesar-winning performance in Clouds of Sils Maria and Elizabeth Banks for her hopeful portrayal in Love and Mercy, has turned into the showcase of the worst level of category-fraud in recent Oscar memory.

Now, it seems as if the race is between Alicia Vikander, who really steals The Danish Girl out from under Eddie Redmayne’s eh…heels (and who provided such a moving performance in this year’s Testament of Youth as to make her doubly deserving), and Rooney Mara, who is arguably in the lead for the touching and memorable performance in Carol. Rounding out the five is probably Kate Winslet, another beneficiary of fraud given that her performance in Steve Jobs is really co-lead to Fassbender. Her witty banter and Polish accent will decidedly help her, and she would arguably be in the lead if not for the absolute box office flop that was the biopic. Now, her nomination could be in peril and give way to someone else, perhaps Jane Fonda in Youth. Take a look at our latest Best Supporting Actress rankings.

Meanwhile, five leading ladies will be glad not to have to square off against Vikander or Mara. For the five slots, four seem like mortal locks - Cate Blanchett in Carol (although I’m still hoping the Academy will see through the fraud and flip Blanchett’s and Mara’s slots), Brie Larson for Room, Jennifer Lawrence in Joy, and Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn. Of those, Larson is the sexy newcomer and is campaigning the most on behalf of a very popular book and movie, so she’s arguably ahead.

As for the fifth slot, it’s really anybody’s guess as between Carey Mulligan (Suffragette), Lily Tomlin (Grandma), or even Charlotte Rampling in the emotional British drama, 45 Years. Indeed, I’ve even heard rumblings that Blythe Danner may sneak in for the little-seen I’ll See You In My Dreams. On thing is certain: with this many serious contenders, that fifth slot is sure to be a surprise when the nominations are announced. And here are the complete updated Best Actress power rankings.

Up Next

The month of November is quite relative to September when it comes to the Oscar race. Still, the Hollywood Film Awards (which went gaga for Boyhood last year), the AFI Film Fest, and other, smaller, local film festivals, all provide launching pads for campaigns, speeches, and disasters. We will be watching them closely until the race truly enters its second stage, with the release of the first few critics’ prizes in early December.

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