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The New York Film Critics: True Bellwether? The NYFCC went for Boyhood last year, and you have to go back to United 93 in 2007 for a year in which the movie they picked did not get a Best Picture nomination. If the NYFCC likes you, the Academy is likely to as well.

Two years ago, the NYFCC infamously picked American Hustle as their favorite film, after a special screening for them was arranged in the days before the voting. This year, David O. Russell’s Joy or Alejandro González Iñárritu’s The Revenant could similarly benefit, but I’m wondering whether their pick of Hustle two years ago still stings, and whether they’ll try to go a bit safer this time. If that is the case, expect Spotlight or possibly Carol to top their list, as both movies have critical respect as well as resonance, as the Indie Spirits show. They’ve already shown they like Todd Haynes, picking his Far From Heaven in 2003, so they may be seeking to validate that pick this time around. And, because their Best Director pick normally aligns, I’m expecting Todd Haynes to triumph here once more. Only if they are seeking to branch out from someone they’ve already selected can I see this going to something unexpected, like Beasts of No Nation or even Brooklyn.

Don’t discount NYFCC’s bellwether power in the acting categories either - they’ve picked at least a Best Actor nominee in basically all of the last 10 years except when they went for Timothy Spall last year for Mr. Turner. With the lack of a serious frontrunner here today, you could easily see them going for Ian McKellen in Mr. Holmes, although a win for Leonardo DiCaprio here would not be surprising and could cement his status as a serious contender. For Actress, I expect a more obscure candidate like Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years, similar to when they went for Marion Cotillard and launched her into the fifth Best Actress spot last year.

Finally, in the supporting races, last year Patricia Arquette’s and J.K. Simmons’ wins at NYFCC marked the beginning of an un-errant march to the podium, so watch who wins in New York next week. I think Alicia Vikander’s performance in The Danish Girl or Rooney Mara’s in Carol are strong, but the NYFCC could likely crown one of those two lead and give it to Elizabeth Banks instead. In the supporting actor race, I’m expecting to see Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies or even Sylvester Stallone for Creed.

National Board of Review: Going Mainstream. The Golden Globes are mocked for nominating big names to get them drunk on their show. In the world of critics, the NBR is arguably the Golden Globes, with their top 10 film lists sometimes appearing too desperate to attract big names. What else explains last year’s inclusion of the mediocre Unbroken if not Angelina’s directorial credit?

Indeed, the NBR has gone more mainstream crowd-pleasing of late, so a win for The Martian here would not be all too shocking, although the crowd-pleasing Room could also find some space. In the acting races, they’ve picked an eventual Best Actor nominee in all but one of the last ten years (the miss was picking Clint Eastwood for Grand Torino in 2008), so I fully expect to see Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant, if they've seen the movie in time, and maybe still Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs.

For actress, they had a string of about ten years where they always picked an eventual nominee, although they began to go their own way when they picked Leslie Manville in 2010 followed by Tilda Swinton in 2011. Nevertheless, they did award Julianne Moore last year for Still Alice. But the category fraud going on in the female acting races this year makes them particularly hard to predict. The critics are not as hamstrung by the consideration category in which films submit their stars, so, like with NYFCC, a win for Rooney Mara or Alicia Vikander here is not out of the question. Still, they seem to like the more nuanced performances over the showy ones, so I’m going to guess Charlotte Rampling here once more.

Despite their mainstream nature, the NBR picked neither Arquette nor Simmons last year (opting instead for Ed Norton and Jessica Chastain) in the supporting categories. I think Sylvester Stallone’s name could be called for Creed, and a win for Kate Winslet here would thrill me.

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