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The most stunning story of all, however, is the complete lack of any nominations for The Martian. Or is it? Is the Martian a real Oscar thing, or is it something that bloggers and pundits have been trying to will into existence? Other than citations from the populist NBR, The Martian has not done well at all with critics, who have yielded, understandably, to the much craftier Mad Max. That movie did not do well with SAG, but The Martian’s exclusion altogether should be a wakeup call.

Finally, one has to mention the nominations for The Big Short, certainly an actors’ showcase, over the shutout of Joy, which did not even land Lawrence a nod. Heck, even the maligned Steve Jobs and The Danish Girl survived with acting nods that will certainly help.

In the end, it is fair to wonder whether SAG had a fluke year, made worse by their impossibly early deadlines and arcane nominations rules. They barely saw The Hateful Eight, which explains its complete lack of nominations. But this has happened to movies like American Sniper, Wolf of Wall Street and Django Unchained, all of which made it safely into the Best Picture category. If SAG cares about their relevance as awards bellwethers (and, trust me, they do) they may have to rethink some of their procedures, no matter how much, as an Oscars’ pundit, I welcome the novelty they provided this year. Conversely, studios need to start paying attention: late releases will not do well with SAG or the Globes (see below), and, while they can still get in to Oscar, that lack of visibility never helps.

The thing is, most of it is going to be irrelevant in two months. By the time they present their awards on January 30th and are reading Sarah Silverman’s name from the list of nominees, no one will have uttered her role in the context of awards again.

SAG Big Winners: Trumbo, The Big Short, Beasts of No Nation.

SAG Big Losers: The Martian, Joy, Creed, The Hateful Eight.

SAG Early Picks: Spotlight, Leo, Brie Larson, Idris Elba, Rooney Mara.

Golden Globes: Enough Space to Spread the Love

As with SAG, Carol did very well here, leading with a total of 5 nominations (despite its bizarre lack of Screenplay nod for Phyllis Nagy. But the SAG giveth and the HFPA taketh away. Although Beasts of No Nation did well with the actors, it was stopped dead in its tracks at the Globes, failing to receive anything other than the now-expected Idris Elba nomination. Here are the nominees:

Golden Globes for Motion Picture Drama:
Carol
Spotlight
The Revenant
Room
Mad Max

SAG Nominations for Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture:
Joy
The Martian
The Big Short
Trainwreck
Spy

With ten slots for actors and movies, of course, the Globes can spread the love. Still, they can revive fledgling candidacies. I was surprised to see The Revenant show up in Drama, Director, and Actor. Leo is not only the prohibitive front-runner to finally win an Oscar, it is clear the HFPA was doing a little bit of catch-up with the Academy after they relegated Birdman to a single award last year. Meanwhile, The Big Short continued its last minute surge, with its SAG and Globes nodes making it a serious threat for Best Picture.

Spotlight got the expected Director, Picture, and Screenplay nods, but the lack of any acting nominations from both here and SAG (okay, it got McAdams), has to start worrying the people behind it. Its Best Picture status seems imperiled.

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