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Does a strong year such as this one make it more or less likely to get to the 10? Intuitively, many movies being popular could actually mean that fewer get nominated. This is particularly so because of the “cramped” ballot - it only has five spaces. If everyone likes five different movies from the next guy, then fewer movies are going to get across that 5% threshold. Thankfully, however, it is important to remember that there are really 30,000 slots and that a movie needs to appear only in 300 of them to get in. So, I think that means that you will get more rather than fewer nominees.

Indeed, the admittedly limited four years of the sliding scale field supports that thesis. Last year was widely considered to be a “weaker” year, and it led to only eight nominees for the first time. Sure, there were many movies from Gone Girl to Nightcrawler and Foxcatcher that should have gotten in, but the narrative around movies was not as strong as in the past three years, and nowhere near the utter confusion that reigns supreme this year around what is going to get nominated.

While I’m not yet ready to predict that this is the year we will see 10 nominees, it is getting quite close to that.

Which Ten?

If it’s going to happen, then which movies are the ones to likely get in? The list is almost breathtakingly long this year - in no particular order: Spotlight, Carol, Mad Max, The Martian, The Revenant, Joy, Room, Beasts of No Nation, The Hateful Eight, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Danish Girl, Trumbo, The Big Short, Creed, Son of Saul, Inside Out, Black Mass and Straight Outta Compton. All have credible shots. That’s 20 movies. Whoa.

So, let’s do more math. Spotlight, despite its weaknesses with the actors, is getting in. The lack of nominations for Keaton and Ruffalo is likely due to voter confusion. While it won’t get the most #1 votes, that doesn’t matter for nominations purposes. It may not be the most beloved, but it is universally respected and acclaimed. It’s in. The same goes for Carol, which on top of acting support will have heavy tech support, from costumes to art direction to cinematography. That one is as sure a bet as they come. I would say that rounding up the third easy spot is Mad Max: Fury Road. While it would be a mistake to assume that simply because it has critical love (and it has a ton of that) it will have Academy love, I think the tech element is strong enough to propel it here. Again, it seems weak with actors, but the movie has had respect from the outset.

It gets trickier from here. I actually think you need to consider Inside Out as an almost sure thing. It is the most beloved animated movie in years and Up and Toy Story 3 got in with the expanded system. Sure, that was when they had 10 slots to nominate, but I bet that the animators branch (400) strong will rally behind it. It needs about half of them to place it somewhere in the ballot, along with only 200 other members.

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