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The Martian, despite its miss at SAG, is likely also in there. Again, tech support is going to be all over it. Ridley Scott is likely the Best Director front-runner, and I would be very surprised if it didn’t make it. And while it didn’t get the SAG nods, that doesn’t mean the actors don’t like it - it only means that it’s a strong year in those races.

That takes us to five, and it does not get easier from here. But I think the next obvious choice is Alejandro González Iñárritu’s The Revenant, which many consider a masterpiece. Tech plus acting will get it in, and I wonder if he is not a lock for another Best Director nod as well. The movie is simply important, moving, gripping, and visually stunning. I do not know that it will be the consensus pick for the win, but for the nomination you do not need to be the consensus, you only need to have passionate support.

We are down to four spots and over 15 movies to consider. At this point, I have trouble not seeing The Big Short get in there somehow. Sure, it is not very crafty, but the movie “feels” important enough, has Brad Pitt behind it, and should have acting and writing support. And it is a crowd-pleaser for the most part. It is either that or Creed, in any event, for that popular movie slot.

Next is likely Room, with its TIFF People’s Choice win showing that it has broad-consensus support. If the movie was seen enough and the people at A24 pushed it hard enough, it should be able to get in.

The leaves us with two, and I know that the two I have right now are not the popular or consensus choice with the bloggers. But I think Joy and Steve Jobs have the highest chances at this point. Why? Because the first is a crowd-pleaser featuring a beloved director and a superstar, and the second is a showy, crafty movie by a director they have responded to repeatedly. The biggest mistake Oscar prognosticators can make is to insert their own feelings into the prediction business - it didn’t work for Boyhood and it didn’t work for The Social Network, despite what bloggers wanted to happen. But as I type that, I have to admit I have a lot of love for both Joy and Steve Jobs, so take my predictions with that grain of salt. Still, I wonder if people’s own dislike of the movies isn’t clouding their judgments.

That gives us 10 solid movies, and, shockingly, no Hateful Eight, no Brooklyn, and no Bridge of Spies. Of the three, I feel the queasiest about leaving Tarantino’s movie out - he has passionate support among the members of the Academy, and he is getting praise for the 70mm project that the movie represents. But the late break of the movie may doom it - we will know more when the guilds nominate, of course. Brooklyn, on the other hand, is probably hemorrhaging votes to the also 1950s Carol, as it is a much more quiet and staid movie. Bridge of Spies, while respected and admired, may also fall to the wayside by the force of other crafty movies. But we shall see. I do not feel comfortable leaving any of these three out.

And what of Trumbo, the movie about the movies, about the Oscars, in fact? Well, it is another fool’s errand to leave that movie out. It will have acting, writing, and tech support across the board. The guilds may clarify the picture, but the movie is making a serious play for it.

Next week: An early look at Joy, The Revenant, The Hateful Eight, and how they could sway the entire Oscars season, or whether other late comers like The Big Short or even Star Wars could do it.

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