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This year, the narrative is, if anything, that The Big Short is a movie urgent and relevant to our times. Spotlight is urgent to a now somewhat more remote social issue. What is funny is how much the Academy can swing back and forth between rewarding movies that make them seem like they live in La-La-Land (The Artist, Argo, The King’s Speech), and movies that in some way speak urgently to the time (The Hurt Locker, Birdman).

Of course, The Big Short hasn’t won a single Academy Award yet. But it likely will. Oh, and, just like that, Brad Pitt would win his second Best Picture Oscar, after his win for 12 Years a Slave.

Predicting the Screen Actors Guild.

So does that mean that the SAG award results are over? Not so fast. You may recall that SAG nominated The Big Short, Straight Outta Compton, Beasts of No Nation, Spotlight, and Trumbo for Best Ensemble. With SAG voting still going on, will the membership look at the PGA result and want to “me too” it? That is the most likely scenario at this point - and The Big Short is a true ensemble movie - so you can probably expect to see that on Saturday.

But it remains to be seen whether the SAG membership wants to shoot their own salvo over the #OscarsSoWhite controversy and thumb their nose at the Academy by selecting Beasts or Compton. I don’t actually expect that to happen - the SAG membership is too disperse and likely not of one mind on the whole kerfuffle. And Trumbo was not widely seen and is just along for the ride.

The only question is whether Spotlight’s campaign for the SAG, which has been their strong play all along by portraying themselves as an ensemble piece, will work. But for all the star power that Spotlight has with Mark Ruffalo and Michael Keaton etc., The Big Short has plenty to give back with Brad Pitt, Christian Bale, Steve Carell, etc.

I expect the outcome to be close, but I do think The Big Short will prevail here and have all the momentum going into the final month of the race.

The other SAG acting races seem easier to call. I simply cannot see Leonardo DiCaprio losing at SAG to either Michael Fassbender or Bryan Cranston. DiCaprio is too popular; people everywhere want him to win the Oscar. The SAG membership will do its part to get him there. The same goes for Brie Larson in lead actress - Cate Blanchett has won here before and Saoirse Ronan’s performance is too muted. Room is, perhaps of all the Best Picture nominees, one of the most popular, as the TIFF win in September proves. They will want to reward the newcomer and the movie.

Best Supporting Actress at SAG ended up matching Oscar except that SAG nominated Helen Mirren for Trumbo and the Academy gave it to Jennifer Jason Leigh. If Alicia Vikander really is going to win the Oscar, as many of us think she will, this is where she has to start. Losing the Globe did not help her, and if Kate Winslet wins here again, watch out. I would love to see Rooney Mara’s subtle performance rewarded, but I’m not counting on it.

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