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Best Supporting Actor: Career Oscar for Sly?.

Can we apply the same theory to Best Supporting Actor? Here, too, the race is somewhat up in the air. Nominated are Sylvester Stallone for Creed, Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies, Christian Bale for The Big Short, Mark Ruffalo for Spotlight, and Tom Hardy for The Revenant.

The obvious news story out of this race was the snub of Idris Elba, who had receive a Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nod only to miss out at the Oscars. Was it #OscarsSoWhite? Was it the unforeseen surge of The Revenant that helped Hardy through? Was it the difficulty in getting voters to like the Netflix-based Beasts of No Nation? Whatever the reason, his absence seems to pay the way for Sylvester Stallone to win a so-called career Oscar. Or does it?

I personally do not and will not buy the Sylvester Stallone narrative. The Academy can be very snobby and they tend to stay away from giving an award to people whose reputation as a performer isn’t exactly stellar. Pundits that were fans of Eddie Murphy or Mickey Rourke or Bill Murray all tried to will into existence wins for those three, but all three of them lost to more respected, established actors. Heck, Rourke lost to someone who had already won (Sean Penn).

The problem this year is that here is no clear alternative to Stallone, because Elba won SAG. But Rylance did win BAFTA, which makes him the obvious alternative. Then again, Rylance gives the more subtle performance of the bunch - his turn as the Soviet spy engenders sympathy from the get go. It is a truly immersive role.

On the other hand, a surge for The Revenant (and the fact that he had a great year with Mad Max and Legend also to his credit) could propel Hardy, or rewarding the most “obvious” performance, like in other races, could help Christian Bale.

When I’m confused about an acting race, I normally just predict what I think is the objective best performance. That is how I got Tilda Swinton right and Alan Arkin right and Marion Cotillard right. This year, I think the best performance here belongs unequivocally to Mark Rylance, so I’m predicting him.

Caveat emptor: it is probably safer in your ballots to pick Sly.

Best Supporting Actor power rankings are here .

Will win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Could win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed

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