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What Happened with Spotlight?

Some stories are meant to repeat themselves. Last year, after our annual defense of the Academy, we spoke of the story arc of the frontrunner that had been taken down by a movie by a gutsy foreign director named Alejandro González Iñárritu. History almost repeated itself, but not quite. This time, Spotlight managed to do to The Revenant what Boyhood could not do to Birdman last year: hold off its impending assault and win Best Picture. How did that happen?

The answer, if you ask me, is quite simple: Oscarologist buzz. Boyhood broke earlier than Spotlight last year - in mid-July, where Spotlight screened in the fall festivals in August/September but was not released until November. By the time the Academy members got around to seeing Boyhood when their screeners came in (think December), they had been hearing about the great masterpiece, the obvious Best Picture frontrunner that it was, for nearly six months.

Not so Spotlight. That movie was well-respected from the beginning, but it never garnered the critical support or pundit support that Boyhood had. It was anointed the Best Picture front-runner more by default than by passion. Still, this label undoubtedly hurt Spotlight along the way, as its PGA loss to The Big Short shows. But the rise and fall cycle was not so extreme that it was unable to recover, like Boyhood was. Perhaps some buyers’ remorse kicked in for Birdman after three guild ones, as shown by its BAFTA lose to Boyhood, but by then it was too late to turn the tide. In the Spotlight vs. The Revenant showdown, by contrast, The Revenant broke late, and Spotlight had enough time to recover between its PGA loss and Oscar voting.

So, it boils down to buzz, perception, and expectations. Few movies can ever live up to that dreaded label: “Best Picture frontrunner.” It nearly took down Spotlight. Do not discount, of course, the fact that The Revenant was a divisive movie, that its director had just won, and that Spotlight, unlike The Revenant, feels like an “important” movie, and those always tend to win over even epic, technical masterpieces (The Hurt Locker vs. Avatar; 12 Years vs. Gravity).

The Predictability of the Oscars: Predicting Lessons for the Future

Finally, last year we complained about the predictability of the Oscars. Despite my incorrect guess of The Revenant as the Best Picture winner, allow me to do the same this year. If you look at my final predictions and the expected winners, basically 23 of 24 lined up to one of two or three top choices.

Like last year, I’d argue that this race featured only one stunner at the end of the day. Last year, nobody saw Big Hero 6’s triumph over How to Train Your Dragon 2 in the animated race. This year, the only race that comes even close is the defeat by Ex Machina over three Best Picture nominees and over Star Wars for Best Visual Effects. Nothing else comes close.

Sure, many pundits were predicting Gaga’s song to win, but if you read this space you did not buy it - there was not an iota of evidence for that, and enough people correctly picked the Sam Smith song as to call that not really an upset. The same goes for Mark Rylance’s triumph over Sylvester Stallone - again, there was no evidence of Stallone winning (certainly no SAG or BAFTA nods), other than pundits’ say so and desire to make it so. I overestimated the strength of The Revenant in predicting Hardy, but I’m giving myself half credit for correctly pointing out from day one that Stallone could not win.

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