New at BOP: Review: Matrix Resurrections Movie Review: Moonfall Movie Reviews: Scream The #1 Movie in America November Forecast The Many Saints of Newark October Forecast New Trivia Question All site updates Share & Save   Tweet Print this column

When Christmas rolls around, I get a feeling, not quite deja vu, that it never has not been the holiday, like, isn’t it always Christmas? That feeling applies even more to the Oscars—but for a the glorious five month sort-of respite between the opening of the Best Picture envelope and the starting bell at Venice/Telluride, it really almost always is Oscar season.

And when you consider that people scout Sundance and Cannes for early signs of contention (Birth of a Nation was crowned this year’s Best Picture winner before we knew whether Spotlight or The Revenant were to triumph for last’s), then it really literally, is always Oscar season.

You thought presidential campaigns and their politics nasty? Please.

Perhaps that depressing intro was not what you needed to get again excited about the Oscars, but look on the bright-side: a promising lineup of potentially great movies lies in wait.

So let’s start off this year by our customary approach - let’s take a look at what you may have missed so far in terms of movies that have already been released that may get a nomination for anything. Even on the cusp of the start of the season predicting is a perilous endeavor - just take a look at last year, when at this time I predicted that Documentary Feature looked “locked and sealed” for The Wolfpack (it was shutout); that Mad Max “will likely land” a cinematography and visual effects nod (it lost both), but “highly doubt” it will make it into Best Picture (it did, and Best Director too); and that “I expect [Ex Machina] to be completely shut out” (it won an Oscar for visual effects). Hey, at least I had The Revenant set to do well earlier in the year, sight unseen.

The State of the Race So Far: Released Movies

My own horrific predictive abilities aside, I do struggle to see anything even coming close to a Best Picture nomination from what has been released so far. Like last year, the summer has provided a couple of hits that seem shoo-ins for Best Animated Feature: Finding Dory and this weekend Kubo and The Two Strings looks to add itself to the list. There have also been some interesting Original Songs, one from Alan Menken in, yes, Sausage Party, as well as a host of new tunes from the sentimental Pete’s Dragon.

For the bigger races: What have the critics liked so far? Eye in the Sky, Helen Mirren’s drone movie, was well-received, but it will get nowhere near the Oscar conversation. Some liked A Bigger Splash, the Tilda Swinton/Ralph Fiennes movie that had a small debut earlier this year (and I did not see), and I guess those two are known quantities that could see something in a weaker year. Others have pointed to the indie-drama from Sundance, Indignation, which was already released in theaters, as something to look out for, but I fear the piece is too wooden and has a problematic ending to make it. If anything, last weekend’s Hell or High Water may get in there with writing or ensemble nods along the way.

Continued:       1       2       3