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Best Cinematography.

The American Society of Cinematographers gave out their awards this weekend in, somewhat in a surprise, went for Lioninstead of La La Land. They had also nominated the camerawork of Arrival, Moonlight, and Silence, making it an exact match with the Oscar nominees.

So what gives here? I suppose one theory is that Silence could cannibalize on the other Best Picture nominees and take it, and it is perhaps the best cinematography. I am, indeed, genuinely surprised by the win for Lion at the ASC, as I thought it the least obvious of the bunch. Arrival is beautifully shot, but then again so are Moonlight and La La Land. This is a genuinely difficult category to handicap given the talent.

The thing with the ASC is that they only have about a 50/50 correspondence with the Best Cinematography Oscar. The guild seems to treasure its craft and it has not been afraid of going for the movie it likes best - think Skyfall over Hugo, or The White Ribbon over Avatar - Oscar consequences be damned. And after three years in a row of a match in which Chivo Lubezki won both awards, I think we are due for a mismatch.

So it’s really down to the Best Picture frontrunner and the movie with “light” in its title, one that depends heavily, particularly in the night scenes, of showy camerawork. But I think it’s too muted to stand out this year, so I will stick with the usual.

Will win: La La land
Could win: Moonlight

Best Film Editing

And then of course the “Best Picture” of the tech races, that one that Oscar pundits will tell you films that are headed for Best Picture wins sometimes win, despite the fact that this correspondence has actually not existed over 50/50 in the last ten years. In any case this year we have Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, La La Land, and Moonlight as the nominees. We know that La La Land and Arrival won the ACE Eddie last week, so that augurs well for them although, again, ACE had a string of three years in which neither of its winners took home this Oscar until Mad Max did so last year.

The rub here is that action movies tend to do well, with movies from Bourne to Girl With Dragon Tattoo triumphing here. But La La Land is very well edited, particularly that final scene that is so important to the power of the movie overall. I think Arrival and Moonnligh are safely out - the former not action-y enough, the latter a bit too quiet to catch their attention. So the question is whether the other two, action movies that use editing for effect and pulse-pounding action, can take down the juggernaut.

Again, it just seems too foolish to bet against La La Land, but here’s to the fools who dream, I suppose!

Will win: La La Land
Could win: Hacksaw Ridge

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