Weekend Forecast for November 17-19, 2017
By Reagen Sulewski
November 17, 2017
Reviews are fairly terrible with most of the positive ones saying essentially, “hey, it's a movie with all the big DC people *and* more Wonder Woman, what else do you want?” Ultimately this all comes down to a terrible vision for the DC films and the far more pessimistic nature of their heroes to begin with. It's not a coincidence that Marvel's had success with wacky, and that DC's best hit of this generation of films was also their funniest (if not entirely “funny”). Some of the marketing has been... not bad?, maybe, and that poster that's done like an Alex Ross painting is pretty sweet to be honest, but that doesn't really make for a good film. The presence of all of the above heroes does guarantee some measure of success, but it's likely not the amount that WB was thinking of when they started this whole process. I'd look for an opening weekend of about $117 million.
While very much not *the* animated film for the holidays, The Star has a laser focus on it target market. It's a heavily Christian telling of the nativity story told from the animals point of view, and a heavy dose of physical comedy and bathroom jokes. With a voice cast that includes Stephen Yuen, Keegan Michael-Key, Anthony Anderson, Kristin Chenowith, Mariah Carey, Tracy Morgan, Tyler Perry... look I'll just cut to the chase here, and Oprah, it's quite the star studded cast – but the tone is just... odd here. It's pitched at a very young audience thanks to this, and will likely struggle to crack out of the ultra-religious and/or tween set. There's a paucity of reviews to date, though they're generally positive, but I have to think they're grading on a curve here based on the modestly animated footage, which consists of pratfalls for about 90% of what they're offering us. Still, points for topicality. I'd look for an opening weekend of about $13 million.
A family film of a different sort, Wonder is a surprisingly high-powered film about a child with a facial disfigurement going to school for the first time. Starring Jacob Tremblay of Room as the child, and Julia Roberts and Owen Wilson as his parents, it's the version of Mask this generation apparently deserves.
Ironically enough for a movie that's about looking beyond appearances, there's really nothing to this film other than what it appears to be, though it apparently avoids being a treacly mess. If you are looking for the kind of film where Lessons Are Learned, this is very definitely the one for you. It's odd to see stars of Roberts and Wilson's calibre in this, but this feels more like a case where this film wouldn't exist at all without them, as opposed to turning a small film into a tentpole. I'd expect more in the area of $11 million here.
Thor: Ragnarok will move out of the way after two weeks on the top of the chart, but having already earned $225 million. An early projection would get this to about $375 million domestic, easily the best of the Thor movies and probably puts it as the sixth best MCU film of all time in terms of earnings (ahead of this year's Spider-Man: Homecoming). Ordinarily you'd think direct competition in genre would hurt, but I feel like Thor doesn't even blink at this one and has a fairly normal drop to $29 million.
Daddy's Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express battled to a near draw with about $29 million each, with the drama having a bit of the edge this weekend. Both overachieved a bit, though, and have solid chances to run strong through the first part of the holidays. I'd give Orient about $17 million, with the Ferrell/Wahlberg comedy hitting $15 million. Bad Moms Christmas will hang around for one more week with around $6 million, though it's going to well underperform the $115 million of the original.
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Forecast: Weekend of November 17-19, 2017
|
Rank |
Film |
Number of
Sites |
Changes in Sites
from Last |
Estimated
Gross ($) |
|
1
|
Justice League
|
4,051
|
New
|
117.5
|
|
2
|
Thor: Ragnarok
|
4,080
|
0
|
29.6
|
|
3
|
Murder on the Orient Express
|
3,354
|
+13
|
17.2
|
|
4
|
Daddy's Home 2
|
3,575
|
0
|
15.4
|
|
5
|
The Star
|
2,837
|
New
|
13.2
|
|
6
|
Wonder
|
3,096
|
New
|
11.0
|
|
7
|
A Bad Moms Christmas
|
2,948
|
-667
|
5.9
|
|
8
|
Lady Bird
|
238
|
+201
|
2.8
|
|
9
|
Jigsaw
|
1,201
|
-1,450
|
1.6
|
|
10
|
Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween
|
718
|
-1,182
|
1.0
|
Continued:
1
2
|
|
|
|
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