They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Globe and SAG Nods Further Muddy the Oscar Water
By J. Don Birnam
December 14, 2017
Best Motion Picture, Drama Dunkirk The Post The Shape of Water Call Me by Your Name Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy The Disaster Artist Get Out The Greatest Showman I, Tonya Lady Bird
Best Director Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World Steven Spielberg, The Post
Best Actor, Motion Picture, Drama Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. Tom Hanks, The Post Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Best Actress, Motion Picture, Drama Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Meryl Streep, The Post Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Best Actor, Motion Picture, Comedy Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver James Franco, The Disaster Artist Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Best Actress, Motion Picture, Comedy Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul Margot Robbie, I, Tonya Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
Best Supporting Actor, Motion Picture Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Best Supporting Actress, Motion Picture Mary J. Blige, Mudbound Hong Chau, Downsizing Allison Janney, I, Tonya Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Best Screenplay The Shape of Water Lady Bird Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri The Post Molly’s Game
SAG Giveth Away…
Not so fast, said the Screen Actors’ Guild. They have a decidedly unique taste and have never shied away from going their own way. This year was no exception. Where the Globes showed a lot of love for the late comers, SAG did the exact opposite and rewarded movies that they have seen for a while. Streaming movies and Netflix did very well, in spaces that the Globes completely shut out.
For example, simply in the ensemble category, the nominations went to The Big Sick (completely shut out at the Globes), and to Mudbound, another movie that did not do well with HFPA. The three movies that have Globe overlap end up being Three Billboards, Lady Bird, and Get Out. If you believe in the “SAG Ensemble” rule, that to win Best Picture a movie has to have a nomination here (the rule has held for all but the first year of SAG’s existence), then your likely Best Picture winner is among those.
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