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And, if you look at the movie with the widest cross-appeal, then you are looking at either a win by Lady Bird, the only one of the three with a major critical mention, or at Three Billboards, whose Toronto People’s Choice win signals strength with broad audiences. Indeed, back during TIFF I did call Three Billboards a “force to be reckoned with,” proving that even the proverbial broken clock may be right twice a day.

But even if you forget the “SAG Ensemble” rule for a second, their nominations threw in a couple of wrenches into the Oscar equation, at least when it comes to nominations if not ultimate winners. Take Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe got his expected nod and he is running away with it likely, but they stunned people by giving Three Billboards not one but two nominations there, for Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson. The three were also joined very surprisingly by Steve Carrell from Battle of the Sexes, a role for which he got a lead nod at the Globes. Richard Jenkins from The Shape of Water rounded out the group, calling into question what happened to the supporting men from CMBYN?

In supporting actress there were also a couple of doozies. Hong Chau from Downsizing made it in (surprising if nothing else because the movie has not been released), and she joined Holly Hunter from The Big Sick and Mary J. Blige from Mudbound, both the second nomination for their respective films after the Ensemble nod. But the race remains between Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf, with the latter probably in the lead (certainly for the SAG, which gave her movie two other nominations).

Lead Actress seemed locked in for five, but they opted, incredibly and somewhat ridiculously to be frank, for Judi Dench for Victoria and Abdul over Meryl Streep in The Post. I’m sorry, but that is the definition of egg on the face. The other four nominees showed up as expected, including Margot Robbie, Frances McDormand, Sally Hawkins, and Saoirse Ronan. It is arguably anybody’s game but you have to give the lead to the ones in Best Ensemble nominees. Then again maybe not, Robbie’s I, Tonya is a crowd pleaser just as much as the others are.

And, finally, in lead actor we were also very surprised, given the inclusion of Denzel Washington over Daniel Day-Lewis or Tom Hanks, particularly given the bad reviews of Roman J. Israel. But the late break of Phantom Thread and The Post probably did not help. The other nominees were, as mostly expected, James Franco, Timothee Chalamet, Gary Oldman, and Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out. Although everyone thinks the race is between Oldman and Chalamet I’m calling an upset here for Kaluuya, upending this race. He is in the only Ensemble nominee in the race. They clearly like his movie more.

And how much stock do we put in them? Again it’s hard to tell. Last year’s winner, Hidden Figures, didn’t win a single Oscar.

Check out the full SAG ensemble nominations below!

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:

“The Big Sick”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Mudbound”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:

Timothee Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:

Judi Dench, “Victoria & Abdul”
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:

Steve Carell, “Battle of the Sexes”
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson,”Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role:

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Hong Chau, “Downsizing”
Holly Hunter, “The Big Sick”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”

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