Weekend Forecast for December 15-17, 2017
By Reagen Sulewski
December 14, 2017
We got our first look at what a post-Star Wars renaissance looks like last Christmas, with Rogue One, the first of the spin-off stand alone movies, which opened very strongly for any other movie, but was almost a $100 million off the main franchise. We'll see if this is part of a pattern or just a new reality in three days or so. Personally, I think there's going to be a clear split in the greater fandom between main sequence and stand alone, and this should be a slight step back from The Force Awakens' open, of around $220 million.
Since Disney isn't about to counter program against its own movie, it falls to Fox... uh... so, listen, about the timing of this... anyway, with the release of Ferdinand the Bull, which I think everyone thought was a Disney property already (so, again, closing a loop). WWE wrestler John Cena voices the title character (wait, you literally can't see him – oh this all makes sense now) as an extremely mild-mannered bull who accidentally causes a rampage and is sent away to a farm and away from his family, including the farmer's daughter who dotes on him.
From there it turns into a Chicken Run-esque escape film complete with wacky sidekick animals (voiced most prominently by Kate McKinnon, Anthony Anderson, David Tennant and for some reason Peyton Manning), with a side trip through”Be Yourself Land,” the 3057th iteration of this trope in children's cinema. While not a sterling example of children's entertainment, reviews are solid and this feels like a slow builder that plays well through the holidays for those kids too young for Jumanji. I'd look for about $15 million in its debut.
This may eat in a little to the three-week #1 Coco, which held strongly to $18 million last weekend. It'll still be in good position for the holidays, though, with about $11 million this weekend, more than enough to see a significant boost over the 12 or so days of holiday bonanza. At around $140 million right now, it's still on the lower end of Pixar's output in the financial column, but it should get significantly past the $200 million figure once holidays are taken into account.
Justice League, meanwhile, is limping towards this period, with just under $10 million last weekend, its fourth. It should grab just $5 million this frame. Wonder, which threatened to pass it last weekend, almost certainly will this one, as the heart-warming drama should nab about $6 million. James Franco's ode to The Room, The Disaster Artist, expands slightly and should stick at $5 million this weekend.
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Forecast: Weekend of December 15-17, 2017
|
Rank |
Film |
Number of
Sites |
Changes in Sites
from Last |
Estimated
Gross ($) |
|
1
|
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
|
4,232
|
New
|
222.5
|
|
2
|
Ferdinand
|
3,600
|
New
|
15.3
|
|
3
|
Coco
|
3,155
|
-593
|
11.3
|
|
4
|
Wonder
|
3,047
|
-472
|
6.4
|
|
5
|
Justice League
|
2,702
|
-726
|
5.8
|
|
6
|
The Disaster Artist
|
1,010
|
+170
|
5.0
|
|
7
|
Daddy's Home 2
|
2,493
|
-770
|
4.0
|
|
8
|
Thor: Ragnarok
|
1,895
|
-1,152
|
3.6
|
|
9
|
Murder on the Orient Express
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
3.2
|
|
10
|
Lady Bird
|
947
|
-610
|
2.2
|
Continued:
1
2
|
|
|
|
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