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Really Best Picture was where some of the surprises lay. We have talked about Phantom Thread, which no one in their right mind saw coming. I did have a gut feeling at the last minute that Darkest Hour would make it in, so I'm giving myself some credit for that. The Post also survived, as I thought, but I was wrong about the popularity of I, Tonya, while being correct about the fact that The Big Sick was done for.

There were other little surprises and historical tidbits. These include:

- The two sound categories matched for the first time ever, rewarding Baby Driver, Blade Runner Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, and Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Look to the Academy to try to reward the Best Picture contenders here, even if arguably the Baby Driver sound is the best of the year.

- Mudbound's Rachel Morrison became the first ever female nominee for Best Cinematography. That is crazy considering it's been 89 years.

- James Franco missed out for The Disaster Artist, with his slot going to Denzel Washington instead. Was it the harassment claims? Denzel's popularity? The subject matter of his film? We will never know, but speculation will be endless.

- Mary J. Blige got a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Mudbound, as well as a Best Original Song for the film, the first time that has ever happened in the same year. It also marks Netflix's first serious foray into the Awards, getting four nominations for that Sundance film.

- Meryl Streep held off contenders to round out the expected five Best Actress nominees. This is her 22nd nomination, extending her record. It is the first time since 2003 since she stars in a Best Picture nominee, and the first time since 1985 since she is nominated for a Best Picture nominee.

So how did I do? Last year I had a pretty good year with over 80% correct in nominations (before totally screwing up the final win predictions). I'm hoping for the reverse this year. Although I did not do too poorly, I vastly underestimated Phantom Thread, and nailed fewer categories 5/5. My total was 73% (81/111), down from over 80% from last year.

And what of early gut predictions? My gut last year was right about Moonlight's two Oscar wins other than Best Picture, and about all acting categories. I also called La La Land's six Oscar wins correctly, but overestimated it and gave it eleven, not realizing the backlash that would build against the movie. It just goes to show that even now, it is still too early.

So, with all that said, my gut right now is that Shape of Water wins Picture (but it's too close to call), Director, and a couple of technical Oscars at the very least, like Production Design or Cinematography and Score. Billboards likely wins Actress and a Supporting Actor prize. Get Out and Lady Bird will battle hard for Original Screenplay. I take Gerwig takes it. Oldman will win Actor, and Janney will hold off Metcalf, unless they reward Lady Bird in that category and give Peele screenplay. Animated is Coco, Foreign is between Chile and Sweden, and Documentary is Faces Places, I think. The sound categories probably go to Dunkirk, with Blade Runner sticking to VFX. Costumes could go to Phantom Thread.

We will have, of course, much more coverage as the season draws to a close. The next page has all the nominees.

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