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We're trying a new experiment this week. BOP is discussing the films that are new to the box office this weekend - their prospects, their high points, their low points. We'll call this a very public test run - this could become a permanent fixture on the site, or it might just be a one off. It's up to you, the readers.

Think Itchy and Scratchy: The Movie, but with more Maggie

Dan Krovich: Anyone here ever heard of this movie? I'm curious as to people's thoughts on the box office.

David Mumpower: To date, the most fascinating aspect of The Simpsons Movie has been watching the tracking bounce all over the place. As recently as three weeks ago, you could find a major movie tracker indicating this much anticipated movie was unlikely to gross over $30 million. Now, the bets seem to be hedged between $50 and $60 million. Effectively, everyone involved is throwing up their hands and saying, "Don't ask me. I know it's my job to tell you what this one should make, but it's anomalous to any title before it. So, you are asking the impossible out of me."

What is perhaps strangest about tracking for The Simpsons is that its score among the 6-12 group is roughly equivalent to what Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix and Ratatouille were. Similarly, teens apparently cannot wait to illegally download it...err, watch it in theaters this weekend. Meanwhile, adults seem largely enthusiastic about it, but they are much more cautious in this regard than younger consumers. I suspect that this is the effect that several members of our site will indicate in this discussion: for many adults, The Simpsons has run its course. People who feel that way simply cannot muster excitement to pay to see an extended episode of a show for which they are no longer passionate.

For myself, I remain a die-hard fan of the series and believe that it has maintained the highest level of quality of any six years or beyond series since Cheers. I will be there on opening night and I will probably see it multiple times in theaters, possibly many times if its quality is as good as early reviews have indicated.

Michael Bentley: I'm not as optimistic as David, but I can't imagine that it only makes $30-40 million opening. I'm currently thinking about $52 million. The people that still watch the show are diehards, and I would think most of them will be seeing the movie. The BIG question is how far it drops in later weeks. Do people see it multiple times, or does it drop like 70%?

Kim Hollis: The trailer has just killed in front of a couple of the recent blockbusters (the Spider-Pig bit in particular gets massive laughs). I really do think it's a $60+ million opener.

Dan Krovich: I just must not be paying attention. I haven't seen a single trailer or commercial for it. I have no idea what it's about other than obviously The Simpsons.





David Mumpower: You haven't seen the Spider-Pig commercials? That bit kills to an epic degree.

Kim Hollis: Wow, I've seen the trailer at least 17 times over the last few weeks.

Michael Bentley: I haven't seen the trailer on TV once yet (besides a couple times during The Simpsons episodes earlier this year). Though I suspect that's also partly because I haven't watched any primetime network tv in at least two months.

Kim Hollis: No, I'm talking about in front of movies. I saw probably four commercials last night while watching TiVo'd episodes of the Daily Show and Colbert (plus another for Who's Your Caddy?). Also, Matt Groening was a guest on The Daily Show, which was pretty fun.

Dan Krovich: I honestly don't think I've seen a frame of this movie, which is actually kind of nice. I did see the article in EW, but I haven't read it so thus far I'm going into the movie completely blind other than knowing the characters from the television show.

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