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The Golden Compass has the weekend that ostensibly starts the holiday box office season all to itself, but it might not last long enough to ride the Christmas week money train.

The Golden Compass

The first of the would-be contenders for holiday box office launches solo, and The Golden Compass comes in with $8.8 million on Friday. This is about what was expected; easily winning the weekend given the large number of holdovers, but with a number that doesn't exactly blow anyone away. While it dealt with much bigger numbers, this is the exact weekend The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe was released two years ago, and that had a 2.85 multiplier. I'll nudge that up slightly to about 2.9 or so, which would mean $25.2 million this weekend for The Golden Compass. With this opening, I wouldn't guarantee that it's still in the picture come Christmas week.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected Rank	Film	Estimated Gross
1	The Golden Compass	25.2
2	Enchanted	9.8
3	This Christmas	5.2
4	Beowulf	4.6
5	Fred Claus	4.4
6	No Country For Old Men	3.5
7	August Rush	3.1
8	Awake	3.1
9	Hitman	3.0
10	Bee Movie	2.5