Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

July 11, 2009

What hath the Wizard of Oz wrought?

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Bruno

Sacha Baron Cohen invades theaters again with the outlandish Bruno, and earned $14.1 million on Friday. This is a boost from Borat's first (and second when it gained nearly 10% upon expansion) weekend of $9.2 million. The first two weekend multipliers for Borat were nearly identical, 2.86 and 2.88 respectively. Given the subject matter for Bruno, I don't quite expect that to be duplicated here. There were some midnight sneaks thrown into that Friday Bruno figure, and one wonders about how well it's playing in...uh, let's just say more conservative parts of the country. I'm going to go with a 2.5 weekend multiplier, which would give Bruno a weekend of $35.2 million.




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I Love You, Beth Cooper

The rather uninteresting looking comedy based off a book a few of the BOP staff have raved about bombs pretty deservedly as I Love You, Beth Cooper earns a mere $2 million on Friday. Looking at a previous teen-aimed "one wild night" movie, last fall's Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist (whose $4.4 million Friday is something this movie would kill for) had a 2.57 weekend multiplier. That works for me, so I Love You, Beth Cooper will go away quickly with $5.1 million.

Notable Holdovers

Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs does fall 51% from last Friday to $8.4 million. Normally this would be a terrible thing but the ace up its sleeve is that last Saturday saw a depreciation due to it being July 4th. Look for a really nice Saturday and a weekend of $28.7 million.

Public Enemies falls 58% from last Friday to $4.2 million. This will benefit from a decent Saturday as well, but not to the same degree as Ice Age. A second weekend of $12.9 million awaits.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Bruno 35.2
2 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs 28.7
3 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen 21.4
4 Public Enemies 12.9
5 The Proposal 10.3
6 The Hangover 9.6
7 I Love You, Beth Cooper 5.1
8 Up 4.5
9

     


 
 

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