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This is a real Sophie's choice. (Well, no, it isn't. But it sounded good.)

Kim Hollis: Which one will do better worldwide business, 2012 or New Moon (Twilight made $383 million worldwide, to save you the research)?

Josh Spiegel: Granted, it still is too early to say anything with any kind of certainty, but I have a feeling 2012 is going to win this one, as surprising as it may be. I'm not sure how many people assumed 2012 would have taken in $225 million over the weekend, especially considering the lack of any major holidays. Of course, New Moon will likely make more money than its predecessor, but 2012 is obviously a blockbuster that will depend heavily on its international take, whereas Twilight was split down the middle. Both are going to be successful, but I think 2012 will be the final winner.

Sean Collier: Are all the questions this week going to depress me? Anyway. I think that as much Twilight mania as there's been over the past two years, the phenomenon is just peaking now. I wouldn't be surprised if New Moon ends up as the highest or second-highest grossing film of the year; I get the feeling that 2012 will peter out fairly quickly. Or maybe that's just hope.

Tom Macy: 2012. Around 50% percent of Twilight's gross was domestic. Whereas Emmerich's previous films all seem to be sitting the 65/35 range – even Godzilla and 10,000 BC (shudder). Even if it totally falls off a cliff from here $500 million worldwide looks like a lock. The apocalypse, naturally being something that effects all of us, is something everyone can relate to.





Brett Beach: I think this will be uber-tight and I see 2012 ekeing out a narrow victory with $700 million ($175 million domestic, $525 million global) vs. $650 million for New Moon ($275 million domestic, $375 million global).

Jason Lee: I could be undone by my overestimation of international appetite for the Twilight series, but I'm going to have to go with New Moon, here. The hype for New Moon started roughly one week after the release of Twilight last year and I can't imagine anything slowing it down in the coming months.

Reagen Sulewski: This is a much tougher question than it seems like. While New Moon's obviously (sigh) going to have a better domestic total, it doesn't translate that well overseas to places where women aren't afraid of sex. Crap blowing up, on the other hand, knows no boundaries and in fact usually does better where language isn't an issue. New Moon likely takes this on the increased domestic business compared to Twilight, but the foreigns on 2012 are going to be monumental.

David Mumpower: Twilight had a one to one ratio in terms of domestic to international receipts. That is not the norm in this day and age. Consider that most of the top 20 films over the past two years have either had significantly more overseas box office than domestic or are in the process of it. Internationally, films run so much longer than they do in North America these days. The point is that while Reagen paints the discussion in much more sexual terms, he is on to something in arguing that Twilight has been largely an American phenomenon to date. Blowing up the world, on the other hand, is a much more universal theme. For this reason, I expect 2012 to do better in terms of overall worldwide box office. Even so, I expect New Moon to be a much stronger performer than its predecessor.

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