Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

April 2, 2011

*Not* a Playboy bunny.

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Hop

Hop opened to $11.4 million on Friday and we should all weep for humanity as this is going to blow away all expectations. This is disturbingly even more than Rango earned a month ago. And considering Rango's opening weekend multiplier of 3.96, we should all be very, very afraid of what Hop is going to come in with - which looks to be about $42.2 million.

Source Code

Perhaps exhausted by sci-fi films that require thought, Source Code somewhat disappoints with $5 million on Friday. This is less than The Adjustment Bureau ($6.7 million) and Limitless ($6.6 million), so audiences are either somewhat over these films or Jake Gyllenhaal is no Matt Damon (whereas Bradley Cooper is). Source Code should have a decent enough weekend multiplier but it's a step back from the previous two films in terms of opening weekend. Look for it to have a weekend of $13.7 million.




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Insidious

Horror entry Insidious comes in with $4.9 million on Friday. This isn't terrible or anything, but it's definitely lost behind the other two openers and is neither a breakout (see: Hop) or a flop (see: Sucker Punch) so that doesn't get you many headlines. Give it a weekend of $12.2 million.

Notable Holdovers

Last week's surprise champ, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules drops a rather high 62% to $2.7 million. The first Wimpy Kid movie had a Friday-to-Friday drop of 61% so that's becoming standard for the franchise. It turned in a weekend multiplier of 3.5 on its second weekend so it'll recover to a degree, but it could potentially be tempered by (sigh) Hop. Rodrick Rules should have a second weekend of $9.5 million.

Meanwhile, Sucker Punch plummets a hilarious 77% to $1.9 million. Look out below as it has a second weekend of $5.5 million, and no hope of approaching its reported $75 million budget.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Hop 42.2
2 Source Code 13.7
3 Insidious 12.2
4 Limitless 9.7
5 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules 9.5
6 The Lincoln Lawyer 7.3
7 Sucker Punch 5.5
8 Rango 4.8
9 Paul 4.5
10 Battle: Los Angeles 3.4

     


 
 

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