Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

November 19, 2011

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The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1

Okay, here we go.

It was two years ago this weekend that New Moon shattered the single day box office record and midnight showings record with $72.7 million, $26.3 million from midnight showings. Deathly Hallows Part 2 took back both of those records in July (after Eclipse broke the midnight showings record).

Speaking of Eclipse, the third entry screwed things up a bit for box office analysts by not only opening in June but also opening on a Wednesday, where it did earn $68 million (which was more than it earned over the Friday-to-Sunday period).

The Friday take for Breaking Dawn, Part 1 is $72 million, with $30.3 million attributed to midnight showings. Gee, that's kind of similar to New Moon, isn't it? If we remove the midnight figure to Friday's box office, that gives us $41.7 million to work with. New Moon's multiplier on its opening weekend with its midnight box office removed was 2.5 (and was 1.97 when counted as part of Friday). For giggles, Eclipse had a 2.3 since the initial crush happened on Wednesday. The similarities between this opening and New Moon make the comparison pretty easy, and there's nothing here to indicate that it'll behave any differently. Part 2 could be another story, but that's not for another year. Breaking Dawn, Part 1 should follow a similar pattern to New Moon, so look for a weekend of $134.5 million.